Canola futures posted a second day of modest gains, supported by rising soybeans and a weaker Canadian dollar.
November canola closed up $2.90 at $449.80 per tonne.
However, over the week, the November contract fell $4.10 or 0.9 percent.
Today the loonie fell almost one cent against its American counterpart, as monthly employment reports were disappointing in Canada but showed growth in the United States.
It is clear that most places around the Canadian Prairies do not need more rain but, alas, forecast maps from the U.S. Weather Service show accumulations of more than .75 inch on the Alberta-Saskatchewan border Sunday night into Monday with more rain in the following day. In total, much of southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan could get accumulations of about an inch by Tuesday night
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In areas where it is dry enough, harvest operations have just begun on winter cereals and pulses. There is some canola swathing.
Canadian canola processors wrapped up the final four days of the crop year with 91,155 tonnes of crush, bringing the total to 8.27 million tonnes versus 7.36 million last year.
Soybean enjoyed support from a pick up in U.S. export business that is helping to lift the price from three-and-a-half month lows hit earlier this month.
“The U.S. is in the driver’s seat for demand until the next South American crop is available after the first of the year,” said Tomm Pfitzenmaier, analyst for Summit Commodity Brokerage in Iowa, told Reuters.
RISING PRODUCTION FORECASTS
Gains were limited by additional crop production forecasts from private analysts ahead of next week’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, which will be the first of the year to set its yield estimate based on farmer survey and in field testing.
Analytical firm Informa Economics on Friday predicted the corn harvest would reach 14.694 billion bushels, with a yield of 169.8 bu. per acre. It sees soybean production at 3.958 billion bu. from a yield of 47.7 bu. per acre.
That tops USDA’s July forecast but is less than a very optimistic forecast from FCStone earlier this week
The July USDA forecast for corn was 14.540 billion bu., with a yield of 168.0 bu. per acre, and the soybean harvest at 3.880 billion bu. and a yield of 46.7 bu.
WHEAT
Wheat futures rose on short covering after the Chicago contract hit a fresh 10-year low earlier this week. Also, the wheat market is getting support from falling wheat production estimates out of western Europe.
The French crop was hit exceptionally hard by a rainy growing season and the crop there is seen as the smallest in 30 years. Rain is now falling as Germany tries to harvest its wheat, damaging its quality.
However, production losses in the European Union are mitigated by larger than normal harvests in eastern Europe. Also there is big production in Russia and Ukraine.
The USDA said today tests show no GMO seed in the commercial wheat supply on the Washington state farm where unapproved GMO wheat plants were found in June. The farm will be able to sell its commercial wheat, which had been quarantined.
EU RAPESEED HURT
The rain at harvest is also reducing Europe’s rapeseed crop. Production will be smaller than last year and imports will likely increase.
Strategie Grains forecasts that imports will rise 3.3 million tonnes, up 400,000 from its last forecast and up 15 percent from the 2015-16 total of 2.86 million.
Europe gets a lot of its rapeseed-canola imports from Ukraine and Australia but some comes from Canada.
In the first 11 months of the 2015-16 crop year European countries have imported 432,000 tonnes of canola from Canada, up from just 76,500 tonnes in the same period the year before.
JOBS REPORTS
The strong job creation numbers in the U.S. helped lift American stock indexes.
The U.S. Labor Department report showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 255,000 in July, far outpacing expectations for a gain of 180,000.
While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9 percent, it held below the five percent mark associated with full employment.
Meanwhile Canada lost 31,200 jobs in July, Statistics Canada said. The trade expected a gain of 10,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.9 percent.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 119.99 points, or 0.83 percent, at 14,648.77.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 191.48 points, or 1.04 percent, to 18,543.53, the S&P 500 gained 18.6 points, or 0.86 percent, to 2,182.85 and the Nasdaq Composite added 54.87 points, or 1.06 percent, to 5,221.12.
For the week, the TSX composite rose 0.5 percent, the Dow rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 1.1 percent.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York today were down 13 cents closing at US$41.80 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.87 cents, up from 76.78 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3180.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016 449.80 +2.90 +0.65%
Canola Jan 2017 456.50 +3.00 +0.66%
Canola Mar 2017 462.80 +2.70 +0.59%
Canola May 2017 469.10 +2.60 +0.56%
Canola Jul 2017 474.40 +2.10 +0.44%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 206.00 +1.00 +0.49%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 210.00 +2.00 +0.96%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 260.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 263.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2016 1003.75 +13.25 +1.34%
Soybeans Sep 2016 988.00 +14.50 +1.49%
Soybeans Nov 2016 974.50 +17.75 +1.86%
Soybeans Jan 2017 974.50 +17.50 +1.83%
Soybeans Mar 2017 965.75 +15.50 +1.63%
Soybeans May 2017 964.50 +15.00 +1.58%
Soybean Meal Aug 2016 335.80 +6.10 +1.85%
Soybean Meal Sep 2016 334.40 +6.40 +1.95%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 332.80 +6.70 +2.05%
Soybean Oil Aug 2016 30.52 -0.02 -0.07%
Soybean Oil Sep 2016 30.62 -0.02 -0.07%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 30.74 -0.02 -0.07%
Corn Sep 2016 324.25 +3.50 +1.09%
Corn Dec 2016 334.25 +3.25 +0.98%
Corn Mar 2017 344.50 +3.00 +0.88%
Corn May 2017 351.25 +3.00 +0.86%
Corn Jul 2017 358.00 +3.00 +0.85%
Oats Sep 2016 178.75 -6.25 -3.38%
Oats Dec 2016 184.25 -1.50 -0.81%
Oats Mar 2017 194.50 -1.25 -0.64%
Oats May 2017 199.25 -2.50 -1.24%
Oats Jul 2017 204.75 -2.75 -1.33%
Wheat Sep 2016 416.00 +12.75 +3.16%
Wheat Dec 2016 438.00 +7.50 +1.74%
Wheat Mar 2017 459.75 +2.75 +0.60%
Wheat May 2017 472.50 +2.00 +0.43%
Wheat Jul 2017 479.75 +2.25 +0.47%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 495.00 +6.25 +1.28%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 504.75 +3.75 +0.75%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 517.50 +2.75 +0.53%
Spring Wheat May 2017 525.25 +1.75 +0.33%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 534.00 +1.50 +0.28%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 411.75 +6.00 +1.48%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 437.25 +5.25 +1.22%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 454.00 +5.00 +1.11%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 465.00 +5.25 +1.14%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 474.25 +5.00 +1.07%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 117.68 +1.36 +1.17%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 115.53 +0.75 +0.65%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 115.68 +0.81 +0.71%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 149.65 +2.08 +1.41%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 147.20 +1.97 +1.36%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 143.88 +0.91 +0.64%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016 67.45 -0.25 -0.37%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 58.30 -0.20 -0.34%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 54.07 -0.31 -0.57%
