Canola futures fall 10 percent on week as weather risk lessens

Forecasts for more benign weather in August in the Midwest weighed down soybean futures Friday and that pressured canola lower.

But soybeans closed above the low of the day.

Worries about the wheat crop in France supported wheat futures.

November soybeans and canola both wound up down 2.4 percent on the day.

Canola remains under pressure from indications of generally good yield potential, although there are local issues with intense summer storms and problems associated with excessive moisture in some areas.

An area from central to northeast Saskatchewan could get rain accumulation Saturday amounting from about 10 to 25 millimetres. The moisture will then moved into the northern grain belt of Manitoba on Sunday.

Read Also

Canada had constructive talks with China over canola dispute, Ottawa says

Canadian officials had constructive talks with their Chinese counterparts about Beijing’s tariffs on canola during a recent visit, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office said in a statement on Friday.

It was a bad week for soybeans, which fell 6.5 percent. Soymeal fell 6.6 percent and soyoil dropped 2.3 percent on the week.

November canola fell 10.3 percent on the week.

Domestic demand remains strong.

Weekly canola crush to July 20 was 181,980 tonnes, down about five percent from last week, but still strong at 88 percent of capacity. That puts the total crush for the year at 8.02 million tonnes. With another 10 days before then end of the crop year, the annual crush should exceed Agriculture Canada’s forecast of 8.1 million tonnes.

The weekly export numbers from Canadian Grain Commission for week 50 showed 135,200 tonnes of canola were exported, down from 235,900 the week before.

The export total for the year will likely come in very close to the 10 million tonnes that Agriculture Canada has forecast.

Chicago December corn rose 0.29 percent today on short covering after prices hit the lowest level in nearly two years.

For the week, Chicago Board of Trade December corn futures fell 4.6 percent, hitting their lowest level since October 2014.

Corn today was also supported by rising wheat.

New crop Minneapolis spring wheat rose 1.74 percent and Chicago climbed about two percent on short covering.

Also, there was modest support from surging European wheat futures as traders there worried about the condition of the crop in France.

The harvest has reached areas that traditionally are among the most productive, but results this year are worse than expected.

ODA Groupe cut its estimate for the coming crop in France to less than 30 million tonnes, a volume not seen since 2003, while Agritel said it was working on the basis of 32 million but would not be surprised if it was below 30 million, Reuters reported.

Over the week, European wheat futures jumped 10 percent higher.

But gains in North America were held in check by record yields in the U.S. winter wheat crop and prospects for a big spring crop. Also, global supplies of wheat are ample.

Over the week, Chicago wheat rose 0.2 percent. Kansas hard red winter wheat futures for September delivery rose 1.5 percent this week and Minneapolis spring wheat dipped 0.1 percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York today were down 56 cents to US$44.19 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.88 cents, down from 76.59 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3178.

U.S. stock markets closed higher on Friday, posting their fourth consecutive week of gains.

The TSX composite closed up 34.83 points or 0.24 percent at 14,600.66.

The Dow Jones industrial average today rose 53.56 points, or 0.29 percent, to 18,570.79, the S&P 500 gained 9.86 points, or 0.46 percent, to 2,175.03 and the Nasdaq Composite added 26.26 points, or 0.52 percent, to 5,100.16.

For the week the TSX composite gained 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent, the Dow edged up 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq surged 1.4 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2016 451.50 -11.10 -2.40%

Canola Jan 2017 458.90 -11.40 -2.42%

Canola Mar 2017 465.20 -11.50 -2.41%

Canola May 2017 468.60 -11.70 -2.44%

Canola Jul 2017 471.90 -11.60 -2.40%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 208.00 +3.00 +1.46%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016 212.00 +2.00 +0.95%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 267.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016 270.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2016 150.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2016 150.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2016 1006.50 -26.00 -2.52%

Soybeans Sep 2016 998.75 -26.75 -2.61%

Soybeans Nov 2016 988.25 -24.25 -2.40%

Soybeans Jan 2017 989.25 -23.50 -2.32%

Soybeans Mar 2017 982.25 -22.25 -2.22%

Soybeans May 2017 978.25 -21.00 -2.10%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016 346.70 -5.80 -1.65%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016 345.80 -5.70 -1.62%

Soybean Meal Oct 2016 343.10 -5.70 -1.63%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016 30.21 -0.85 -2.74%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016 30.31 -0.88 -2.82%

Soybean Oil Oct 2016 30.43 -0.89 -2.84%

Corn Sep 2016 335.00 +0.75 +0.22%

Corn Dec 2016 341.75 +1.00 +0.29%

Corn Mar 2017 351.50 +1.25 +0.36%

Corn May 2017 357.00 +1.00 +0.28%

Corn Jul 2017 362.50 +1.75 +0.49%

Oats Sep 2016 207.50 -0.25 -0.12%

Oats Dec 2016 204.00 -0.50 -0.24%

Oats Mar 2017 206.75 -1.50 -0.72%

Oats May 2017 211.25 -1.50 -0.71%

Oats Jul 2017 217.00 -1.50 -0.69%

Wheat Sep 2016 425.25 +7.50 +1.80%

Wheat Dec 2016 450.25 +9.00 +2.04%

Wheat Mar 2017 475.25 +10.75 +2.31%

Wheat May 2017 487.25 +10.25 +2.15%

Wheat Jul 2017 494.75 +9.50 +1.96%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 495.25 +9.00 +1.85%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 511.00 +8.75 +1.74%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 526.75 +8.50 +1.64%

Spring Wheat May 2017 536.75 +9.00 +1.71%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 546.25 +8.75 +1.63%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 419.00 +11.50 +2.82%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 445.00 +11.50 +2.65%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 462.00 +11.75 +2.61%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 473.00 +12.00 +2.60%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 482.75 +12.00 +2.55%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 109.95 +2.43 +2.26%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 108.08 +2.38 +2.25%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 109.20 +1.93 +1.80%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 137.20 +2.80 +2.08%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 135.82 +2.37 +1.78%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 134.80 +2.10 +1.58%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016 75.28 +0.83 +1.11%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 63.90 +1.63 +2.62%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 58.48 +2.03 +3.60%

Your reading list