Soybean futures drag down canola and other crops

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Published: July 14, 2016

Soybeans fell late Thursday, mostly on technical signals but also on a slightly less hot forecast for the U.S. Midwest.

The falling soybean contract dragged canola and other crop futures lower.

August soybeans dropped about 3.5 percent and new crop November dropped almost 3.9 percent.

The decline in canola futures was less dramatic, with November down only one percent.

Click here to see this week’s video crop markets update

The latest forecast for Midwest weather showed fewer days of extreme heat and perhaps a little more rain. The decline in soybean futures accelerated as they fell below the 30, 40 and 50-day moving averages.

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The decline in corn was also more modest with stronger than expected export demand providing support.

The USDA reported today that last week’s old-crop export sales were 667,800 tonnes and new-crop export sales were 687,800 tonnes, topping forecasts.

Wheat, however, saw disappointing exports.

Weekly sales totaled 317,700 tonnes, below forecasts that ranged from 400,000 to 600,000 tonnes. Wheat continues under pressure of high yields in the U.S. winter wheat harvest.

In Western Canada this afternoon, thunderstorms are moving across parts of Alberta and south of the TransCanada Highway in Saskatchewan.

A system Friday afternoon-Saturday could bring close to an inch or more of rain to parts of Alberta’s foothills and southern regions.

Warmer temperatures are expected across the Prairies next week.

Consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday cut its forecast for 2016 soft wheat production in the European Union by 1.2 million tonnes to 145.5 million because of poor weather in top producer France, Reuters reported.

Prospects in Germany and Britain have also dimmed.

“There is now worry in a lot of west Europe that repeated rain in the spring and early summer will damage crop quality,” one German trader told Reuters.

“It looks like good quality wheat will be scarcer than expected.”

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 93 cents to US$45.68 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.43 cents, up from 77.13 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2915.

Strong quarterly results at JPMorgan Chase bank helped lift stock markets.

The TSX composite closed up 20.72 points, or 0.14 percent, at 14,514.52.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 134.29 points, or 0.73 percent, to 18,506.41, the S&P 500 gained 11.32 points, or 0.53 percent, to 2,163.75 and the Nasdaq Composite added 28.33 points, or 0.57 percent, to 5,034.06.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2016   477.00   -5.20   -1.08%

Canola Jan 2017   484.20   -5.30   -1.08%

Canola Mar 2017   491.10   -4.70   -0.95%

Canola May 2017 495.30   -4.50   -0.90%

Canola Jul 2017   499.20   -4.40   -0.87%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2016   211.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2016   215.00   unch   0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2016   274.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2016   277.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2016   155.00   +3.50   +2.31%

Barley Dec 2016   155.00   +3.50   +2.31%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2016   1111.50   -16.50   -1.46%

Soybeans Aug 2016   1083.75   -39.00   -3.47%

Soybeans Sep 2016   1073.25   -39.50   -3.55%

Soybeans Nov 2016   1062.25   -43.00   -3.89%

Soybeans Jan 2017   1061.00   -43.00   -3.89%

Soybeans Mar 2017   1045.50   -36.25   -3.35%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2016   381.30   -7.20   -1.85%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016   373.20   -14.90   -3.84%

Soybean Meal Sep 2016   371.40   -15.00   -3.88%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2016   31.12   +0.47   +1.53%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016   30.67   -0.06   -0.20%

Soybean Oil Sep 2016   30.80   -0.06   -0.19%

 

Corn Jul 2016 362.25   -3.50   -0.96%

Corn Sep 2016   357.75   -4.25   -1.17%

Corn Dec 2016   364.75   -5.00   -1.35%

Corn Mar 2017   372.50   -4.75   -1.26%

Corn May 2017   377.25   -4.75   -1.24%

 

Oats Jul 2016   217.00   -20.75   -8.73%

Oats Sep 2016   206.75   -3.00   -1.43%

Oats Dec 2016   203.75   -4.25   -2.04%

Oats Mar 2017   210.75   -1.50   -0.71%

Oats May 2017   215.25   -1.50   -0.69%

 

Wheat Jul 2016   421.75   -4.50   -1.06%

Wheat Sep 2016   434.00   -5.75   -1.31%

Wheat Dec 2016   458.50   -4.50   -0.97%

Wheat Mar 2017   479.75   -2.25   -0.47%

Wheat May 2017   492.25   -1.75   -0.35%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   487.75   unch   0.00%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   500.00   -2.50   -0.50%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016   515.00   -2.25   -0.43%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   529.75   -2.00   -0.38%

Spring Wheat May 2017   538.75   -2.50   -0.46%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   406.00   -1.75   -0.43%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   417.75   -4.75   -1.12%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   443.75   -4.50   -1.00%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   460.75   -4.25   -0.91%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   471.50   -4.25   -0.89%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016   112.72   +1.27   +1.14%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016   112.08   +1.73   +1.57%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016   113.35   +1.20   +1.07%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016   141.70   +2.42   +1.74%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016   141.10   +2.57   +1.86%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016   139.98   +2.28   +1.66%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2016   80.30   +0.13   +0.16%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2016   78.60   -0.60   -0.76%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016   67.40   -0.15   -0.22%

 

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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