May canola futures close above $470 first time since Feb. 22

Oilseeds edged higher on Wednesday but cereals were lower.

May canola closed at $470.20 a tonne, just over the psychologically important resistance level.

Short covering was the main driver. It was the third straight day of gains.

The western Prairies remain dry and if that continues it could have a negative effect on canola acreage.

Agriculture Canada forecasts canola area at 20.84 million acres, up 3.7 percent from last year.

AgCanada issued its monthly supply and demand outlook today and surprisingly increased its forecast for year end canola stocks, pegging them at 1.85 million tonnes, up from 1.75 million last month.

The reason was that it lowered the domestic crush forecast for the current year by 100,000 tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes.

At 8.1 million that would be an increase of 10 percent over last year. To date, the crush is running 12.7 percent ahead of last year.

AgCanada left its export estimate for the current year unchanged at 9.5 million tonnes, up 3.7 percent over last year. To date exports are running 19 percent ahead of last year’s pace.

However there are concerns that China’s new, more restrictive allowance for dockage, which starts April 1, could hurt exports.

Movements in American markets were unremarkable.

Wheat fell for a second day on ideas that after the recent weather rally values are too high and will discourage exports.

Also analysts are saying that there likely will be little damage to the hard red winter wheat crop that is likely to see overnight lows of –4 to -5 C in western Kansas and Colorado on Friday and Saturday.

Dry weather in Brazil is allowing rapid harvesting and keeping roads dry to allow soybeans and corn to move to port.

The U.S. dollar dropped late morning after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while lowering expectations for the number of rate hikes this year.

Reuters reported fresh projections pointed to two quarter-point rate hikes by year’s end, down from an expected four back in December.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York jumped up $2.12 to US$38.46 per barrel. Major producers firmed up plans to meet in Qatar to discuss an output freeze and U.S. crude stockpiles grew less than expected.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US74.84 cents, down from 74.86 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3362.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 77.82 points, or 0.58 percent, at 13,478.13.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 74.23 points, or 0.43 percent, to 17,325.76, the S&P 500 had gained 11.29 points, or 0.56 percent, to 2,027.22 and the Nasdaq Composite had added 35.3 points, or 0.75 percent, to 4,763.97.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2016 470.20 +2.90 +0.62%

Canola Jul 2016 473.70 +4.80 +1.02%

Canola Nov 2016 475.80 +5.10 +1.08%

Canola Jan 2017 478.80 +4.60 +0.97%

Canola Mar 2017 481.30 +4.60 +0.96%

Milling Wheat May 2016 238.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 238.00 -2.00 -0.83%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 232.00 -6.00 -2.52%

Durum Wheat May 2016 290.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 278.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 266.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2016 176.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 180.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2016 180.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2016 894.5 +2.5 +0.28%

Soybeans Jul 2016 900.25 +2.5 +0.28%

Soybeans Aug 2016 902.25 +2.25 +0.25%

Soybeans Sep 2016 902.25 +2.5 +0.28%

Soybeans Nov 2016 905 +2.25 +0.25%

Soybeans Jan 2017 909.25 +2.25 +0.25%

Soybean Meal May 2016 267.7 -0.5 -0.19%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 270.4 -0.6 -0.22%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016 271.5 -0.7 -0.26%

Soybean Oil May 2016 32.69 +0.2 +0.62%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 32.92 +0.2 +0.61%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016 33 +0.21 +0.64%

Corn May 2016 368.25 -0.25 -0.07%

Corn Jul 2016 373.25 -0.25 -0.07%

Corn Sep 2016 378.5 -0.25 -0.07%

Corn Dec 2016 386.5 -0.75 -0.19%

Corn Mar 2017 395.5 -0.5 -0.13%

Oats May 2016 195.5 -0.5 -0.26%

Oats Jul 2016 205.25 -0.5 -0.24%

Oats Sep 2016 212.25 unch 0.00%

Oats Dec 2016 220.5 unch 0.00%

Oats Mar 2017 225.25 unch 0.00%

Wheat May 2016 470.75 -6.5 -1.36%

Wheat Jul 2016 478.25 -6.25 -1.29%

Wheat Sep 2016 488 -6.25 -1.26%

Wheat Dec 2016 502.5 -5.5 -1.08%

Wheat Mar 2017 516 -5.25 -1.01%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2016 515.5 -3.75 -0.72%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 524.75 -3.5 -0.66%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 534.5 -3 -0.56%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 547.5 -3.25 -0.59%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 560 -3.5 -0.62%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 483.75 -5.25 -1.07%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 493.5 -5.25 -1.05%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 507 -5 -0.98%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 526 -4.75 -0.89%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 537.75 -5.25 -0.97%

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