Canola futures slammed by China issue, rising loonie

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: February 25, 2016

Canola futures were hit hard again, falling more than two percent as the loonie rose one cent and the trade digested news about more stringent Chinese import rules.

Corn and soybean futures generally were lower following the USDA’s first forecast of U.S. spring crop acreage. But wheat edged a little higher.

Canola futures are now the lowest in 10 months with most-traded May falling $11.50 to $453.20, down almost 2.5 percent.

China this week informed Canada that it would be imposing new lower allowable limits on dockage in canola.

Click here for our weekly markets video that delves more deeply into the China canola dockage issue.

The new level is one percent, down from a range of two-to-2.5 percent previously.

Exporters are concerned about whether they will be able to meet the target and about the risk of shipments being rejected at Chinese ports.

The Chinese say they are concerned about blackleg fungus contamination. The trade in Canada believes the tighter restriction could be related to China’s efforts to reduce its huge government-owned stockpile of rapeseed oil.

Canola also fell as the loonie gained one cent against the American dollar. The loonie was supported by ideas that crude oil might be at a bottom.

Falling soybeans also weighed down canola. The advancing harvest and increasing exports from South America were negative for oilseed prices.

Brazilian analysts Agroconsult increased its forecast of that country’s soy crop to 101.6 million tonnes, up from 99.2 million in the January forecast.

The USDA today forecast U.S. farmers would seed 82.5 million acres to soybeans this spring, down 200,000 acres from last year.

The midpoint of trade projections was 83.3 million.

Corn futures fell after the USDA said spring seeded area would rise to 90 million acres, up two million, and topping the midpoint of trade projections at 89.6 million.

These forecasts are from USDA economists. The planting intentions survey of farmers comes out in late March.

Wheat added a few pennies a bushel on weekly U.S. export sales that topped expectations and were the strongest in three months.

The USDA pegged total wheat acreage for 2016 at 51 million acres, down 3.6 million from last year and the lowest since 1970.

Analysts had expected 52.4 million.

Although large global wheat stocks limit price gains, there are signs that buyers around the world are stepping up purchases now that prices have fallen to 5 ½ year lows.

Export sales of U.S. corn and soybeans last week were within the range of trade expectations, according to the regular Thursday USDA export report.

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York closed up 92 cents to US$33.07 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US73.66 cents, up from 72.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3541.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 13.33 points, or 0.10 percent, at 12,753.60.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 212.99 points, or 1.29 percent, to 16,697.98, the S&P 500 gained 21.93 points, or 1.14 percent, to 1,951.73 and the Nasdaq Composite added 39.60 points, or 0.87 percent, to 4,582.21.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2016 447.80 -12.90 -2.80%

Canola May 2016 453.20 -11.50 -2.47%

Canola Jul 2016 459.30 -10.80 -2.30%

Canola Nov 2016 467.70 -9.00 -1.89%

Canola Jan 2017 472.20 -9.10 -1.89%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2016 227.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat May 2016 230.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 234.00 unch 0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2016 317.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016 325.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 310.00 unch 0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2016 182.00 -4.00 -2.15%

Barley May 2016 184.10 -5.90 -3.11%

Barley Jul 2016 185.00 -7.00 -3.65%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2016 859 -8.5 -0.98%

Soybeans May 2016 865.5 -6.75 -0.77%

Soybeans Jul 2016 871.75 -6.75 -0.77%

Soybeans Aug 2016 873.75 -6.75 -0.77%

Soybeans Sep 2016 874 -6 -0.68%

Soybeans Nov 2016 876.75 -6 -0.68%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2016 260 -2.9 -1.10%

Soybean Meal May 2016 262.7 -1.9 -0.72%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 265.2 -2 -0.75%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2016 30.65 -0.27 -0.87%

Soybean Oil May 2016 30.91 -0.28 -0.90%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 31.14 -0.28 -0.89%

 

Corn Mar 2016 355.5 -4.25 -1.18%

Corn May 2016 360.5 -4 -1.10%

Corn Jul 2016 365.75 -4.25 -1.15%

Corn Sep 2016 371.5 -4 -1.07%

Corn Dec 2016 379.75 -4 -1.04%

 

Oats Mar 2016 170.5 -7.5 -4.21%

Oats May 2016 183.5 -3.5 -1.87%

Oats Jul 2016 191.75 -3.25 -1.67%

Oats Sep 2016 198.25 -3 -1.49%

Oats Dec 2016 202.75 -0.25 -0.12%

 

Wheat Mar 2016 445.25 +2.5 +0.56%

Wheat May 2016 454 +2.75 +0.61%

Wheat Jul 2016 462.25 +2.5 +0.54%

Wheat Sep 2016 473 +1.75 +0.37%

Wheat Dec 2016 489.5 +1.5 +0.31%

 

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 486.25 +1 +0.21%

Spring Wheat May 2016 491.75 +0.75 +0.15%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 500.5 +0.75 +0.15%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 510.75 +0.5 +0.10%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 525.75 +1.25 +0.24%

 

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 446.25 +3.5 +0.79%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 457 +3.25 +0.72%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 467.5 +3.25 +0.70%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 480.75 +3.25 +0.68%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 501 +2.5 +0.50%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

explore

Stories from our other publications