Canola futures edge higher on commercial buying, loonie, stronger soy

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: January 5, 2016

Canola futures halted their three day skid, rising on commercial buying and a weak Canadian dollar.

Stock markets calmed down after Monday’s steep slide caused by jitters over China’s weakening economy.

Support for canola also came from stronger soybeans, which saw a short-covering bounce.

But gains were kept in check by improving soil moisture in central Brazil, falling crude and vegetable oil prices and continuing worries about the Chinese economy.

Most traded March canola closed at $484.30, up $2.40 or 0.5 percent.

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  • Canada’s canola crush continues robust.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 165,243 tonnes in the week ending Dec. 30, up 7.6 percent from the week before. Capacity use was at a strong 83 percent.

So far this crop year the crush has topped 3.3 million tonnes, up 12 percent over last year.

  • Soybeans got support from a report showing that speculators already have such a negative position there is little chance of further declines and a good chance for a short covering rally.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly stats show that the net short in Chicago soybeans and options was at a six month high, leaving speculators over exposed and at risk if the market turns against them.

  • Corn and wheat also edged higher on American exchanges on a technical bounce after declining on Monday.

In wheat, the biggest gains were in hard red winter, which climbed about one percent.

  • The monthly USDA reports on winter wheat condition came out Monday.

Ratings improved for Kansas and Oklahoma.

In Kansas winter wheat condition rated one percent very poor, seven percent poor, 38 percent fair, 46 percent good and eight percent excellent.

Condition ratings for soft winter wheat in Illinois declined during December after heavy rains flooded part of the state.

  • A private consultant thinks Ukraine will export 14 million tonnes of wheat this crop year, up one million tonnes from its last forecast.

That compares to 10.8 million tonnes in 2014-15.

  • Analysts expect Malaysian palm oil output dropped in December reflecting the usual seasonal decline and the effects of dry weather from the El Nino.

The monthly palm production report for December comes out Jan. 11.

  • Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 79 cents to US$35.97 per barrel.
  • The Canadian dollar at noon was US71.46 cents, up from 71.59 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3993.
  • The Dow Jones industrial average rose 10.07 points, or 0.06 percent, to 17,159.01, the S&P 500 gained 4.11 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,016.77 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 11.66 points, or 0.24 percent, to 4,891.43.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Jan 2016   476.20   +2.40   +0.51%

Canola Mar 2016   484.30   +2.40   +0.50%

Canola May 2016 491.00   +3.80   +0.78%

Canola Jul 2016   493.50   +3.60   +0.73%

Canola Nov 2016   489.30   +2.80   +0.58%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2016   230.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat May 2016   234.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016   239.00   unch   0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2016   316.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016   324.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016   324.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2016   182.00   -2.00   -1.09%

Barley May 2016   188.00   -2.00   -1.05%

Barley Jul 2016   190.00   -2.00   -1.04%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2016   867.75   +3.25   +0.38%

Soybeans Mar 2016   857.25   +1.25   +0.15%

Soybeans May 2016   861.75   +1   +0.12%

Soybeans Jul 2016   869.25   +1.5   +0.17%

Soybeans Aug 2016   871.75   +1.25   +0.14%

Soybeans Sep 2016   871.75   +1.75   +0.20%

 

Soybean Meal Jan 2016   265.3   +2.1   +0.80%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016   266.3   +1.9   +0.72%

Soybean Meal May 2016   269.1   +1.6   +0.60%

 

Soybean Oil Jan 2016   29.63   -0.3   -1.00%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016   29.81   -0.31   -1.03%

Soybean Oil May 2016   30.03   -0.31   -1.02%

 

Corn Mar 2016   353   +1.5   +0.43%

Corn May 2016   358.5   +1   +0.28%

Corn Jul 2016   364.75   +1   +0.27%

Corn Sep 2016   370   +1   +0.27%

Corn Dec 2016   377.75   +0.75   +0.20%

 

Oats Mar 2016   210.25   -0.25   -0.12%

Oats May 2016   210.5   -1   -0.47%

Oats Jul 2016   213.25   -3   -1.39%

Oats Sep 2016   218.75   -3   -1.35%

Oats Dec 2016   216.25   -1.75   -0.80%

 

Wheat Mar 2016   461.25   +3   +0.65%

Wheat May 2016   466.75   +2.25   +0.48%

Wheat Jul 2016   474.25   +2   +0.42%

Wheat Sep 2016   484   +2   +0.41%

Wheat Dec 2016   498.25   +1.75   +0.35%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   487.75   +3   +0.62%

Spring Wheat May 2016   496   +1.75   +0.35%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   506.25   +1.5   +0.30%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   518.75   +1   +0.19%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016   535   +0.75   +0.14%

 

Kansas

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   460   +5.75   +1.27%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   469.25   +4.75   +1.02%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   479   +4   +0.84%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   493.25   +3.5   +0.71%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016   514.25   +2.75   +0.54%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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