It was a down day in crop markets Thursday, with traders perhaps thinking that the recent gains tied to ideas of a bullish USDA report on Friday were a little overdone.
Watch Producer.com for coverage of the USDA report on Friday morning.
Forecasts of generally good harvest weather over the next several days put downward pressure on crop prices.
A weak export sales weekly report for corn also weighed on grains. The U.S. dollar fell but that did not help Chicago corn and soybean much. The trade also generally ignored rising crude oil prices.
There are reports of steady farmer selling of canola and commercials are steady buyers. Canola exports are running a little ahead of last year’s pace and the domestic crush is at the same pace as last year.
Analysts expect the USDA on Friday will lower its forecasts of U.S. 2015-16 wheat, corn and soybean ending stocks, while also adjusting its estimates of U.S. corn and soybean production.
A Reuters poll showed the midpoint of traders’ expectations for corn is 13.504 billion bushels versus 13.585 billion in the September estimate. Traders expect corn yield and acreage will be slightly lower.
For soybeans the expectation for the October report is 3.908 billion bu. versus 3.935 billion in the September report. Traders think soy yield will be up slightly but the acreage will be down.
Soyoil futures fell on Thursday, shrugging off support from the rally in the crude oil market as well as flash export sale of 20,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations.
Wheat futures were also lower but remain supported by dry weather affecting fall seeding in the U.S. southern plains and in Ukraine and parts of Russia.
Dry weather in eastern Australia is trimming the potential of the developing wheat crop there.
It is also dry in central Brazil where soybean seeding is underway and it is expected to remain fairly dry in the coming week. Farmers there sometimes delay seeding in these situations, waiting for better moisture.
However, in years of a strong El Nino, such as we are in now, Brazil normally enjoys good moisture through the growing season.
FOR A VIDEO REVIEW OF ISSUES MOVING THIS WEEK’S CROP PRICES CLICK THIS: VIDEO: Canada’s agricultural markets update
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.62 cents to US$49.43 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.82 cents, up from 76.71 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3018.
The stronger crude oil price helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange.
The S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 110.31 points, or 0.8 percent, at 13,978.66.
Stocks generally rose as minutes from the September Federal Reserve meeting shed light on its decision to keep interest rates near zero until it becomes clearer how the U.S. economy will do even as international economic conditions are shaky.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 137.86 points, or 0.82 percent, to 17,050.15, the S&P 500 gained 17.56 points, or 0.88 percent, to 2,013.39 and the Nasdaq Composite added 19.64 points, or 0.41 percent, to 4,810.79.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 470.10 -4.40 -0.93%
Canola Jan 2016 475.00 -4.40 -0.92%
Canola Mar 2016 477.10 -4.60 -0.95%
Canola May 2016 477.20 -4.50 -0.93%
Canola Jul 2016 475.50 -4.70 -0.98%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 236.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 239.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 243.00 -1.00 -0.41%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 340.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 190.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 185.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 187.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2015 881.25 -9.75 -1.09%
Soybeans Jan 2016 886.25 -8.75 -0.98%
Soybeans Mar 2016 890 -8.75 -0.97%
Soybeans May 2016 894.5 -8.5 -0.94%
Soybeans Jul 2016 901 -7.75 -0.85%
Soybeans Aug 2016 900.75 -7.5 -0.83%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 303.8 -1.4 -0.46%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015 304.3 -2.2 -0.72%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 28.17 -0.25 -0.88%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015 28.36 -0.26 -0.91%
Soybean Oil Jan 2016 28.63 -0.27 -0.93%
Corn Dec 2015 391.25 -4.5 -1.14%
Corn Mar 2016 401.75 -4.5 -1.11%
Corn May 2016 407.75 -4.75 -1.15%
Corn Jul 2016 413 -4.25 -1.02%
Corn Sep 2016 406.25 -4.5 -1.10%
Oats Dec 2015 218.75 -0.5 -0.23%
Oats Mar 2016 220.5 unch 0.00%
Oats May 2016 221.25 -0.5 -0.23%
Oats Jul 2016 225.5 -1 -0.44%
Oats Sep 2016 227.75 -1 -0.44%
Wheat Dec 2015 511.5 -5.25 -1.02%
Wheat Mar 2016 519 -4.75 -0.91%
Wheat May 2016 524 -4.5 -0.85%
Wheat Jul 2016 528 -3.75 -0.71%
Wheat Sep 2016 537 -3.25 -0.60%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 531 -2.5 -0.47%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 543.25 -1.75 -0.32%
Spring Wheat May 2016 551.5 -2.75 -0.50%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 561 -3 -0.53%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 571.5 +3.25 +0.57%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 503.5 -4.5 -0.89%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 517.75 -4.5 -0.86%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 527.25 -5 -0.94%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 537.25 -5.5 -1.01%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 550.5 -5.5 -0.99%
