Canola closes down

Larger canola stockpiles than expected helped drive canola futures prices down Thursday.

Statistics Canada reported surprisingly larger stocks of canola than the trade had been expecting.

Statistics Canada reported that there were 2.3 million tonnes in store on July 31, versus trade expectations of about 1.4 million. Analysts expected an about 43 percent decline from year-before levels, but StatsCan only found a 23 percent decrease.

That means buyers won’t have nearly as difficult a time finding canola in the next few months as they expected. The trade had been expecting razor-thin stocks, but StatsCan found more comfortable levels.

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“The market took it as a negative,” said Brian Voth, a marketing adviser with Agri-Trend.

“According to this, there are a lot more stocks around than was anticipated. It’s going to alleviate a lot of the tightness.

Probably in response, canola futures fell more than eight dollars per tonne and to beneath $460 per tonne, threatening to break the $460 support level if they stay down.

Traders will be watching the canola price action closely Friday to see whether there is a rebound, or if $460 is gone as support. Some traders think $440 will be the next support level reached.

The Canadian dollar rose Thursday, putting pressure on loonie-denominated canola futures.

Poor demand for U.S. wheat helped wheat futures fall to five year lows, with ample world supplies eliminating any fear that anyone will have trouble finding everything they need in the next year.

Soybeans and soybean components fell ever so gently Thursday, in marked contrast to the sharp selloff in canola.

Most stock markets rose slightly, following assurances from the European central bank that it would offer stimulus to that region’s economy if it appears to be stuck in economic stagflation and on the edge of deflation.

Oil continued to bounce back.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 50 cents to US$46.75 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.76 cents, up from 75.13 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3199.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   457.40   -8.40   -1.80%
Canola Jan 2016   463.40   -8.20   -1.74%
Canola Mar 2016   467.60   -8.30   -1.74%
Canola May 2016   468.10   -8.30   -1.74%

Canola Jul 2016   468.70   -8.40   -1.76%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   221.00   -3.00   -1.34%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   221.00   -3.00   -1.34%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   225.00   -3.00   -1.32%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016   340.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   184.00   unch   0.00%
Barley Dec 2015   184.00   unch   0.00%
Barley Mar 2016   186.00   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015   879.75   -4   -0.45%
Soybeans Nov 2015   869.5   -4.5   -0.51%
Soybeans Jan 2016   873.5   -4.5   -0.51%
Soybeans Mar 2016   874.5   -4.5   -0.51%
Soybeans May 2016   876.5   -4.25   -0.48%
Soybeans Jul 2016   879.75   -4.5   -0.51%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   316.5   -1.6   -0.50%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015   310.1   -2.1   -0.67%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015   308.2   -2.1   -0.68%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   26.76   unch   0.00%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015   26.85   -0.01   -0.04%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015   27.07   -0.02   -0.07%

Corn Sep 2015   347.75   -6.25   -1.77%

Corn Dec 2015   361.5   -6   -1.63%
Corn Mar 2016   373   -5.75   -1.52%
Corn May 2016   380   -5.5   -1.43%
Corn Jul 2016   385.5   -4.75   -1.22%

Oats Sep 2015   222.75   -1.75   -0.78%
Oats Dec 2015   222.75   -1.75   -0.78%
Oats Mar 2016   222.75   -1.75   -0.78%
Oats May 2016   228.25   -2   -0.87%
Oats Jul 2016   229.25   -2   -0.86%

Wheat Sep 2015   456.5   -16.5   -3.49%
Wheat Dec 2015   465.25   -13.75   -2.87%
Wheat Mar 2016   473.75   -12.75   -2.62%
Wheat May 2016   479.5   -12   -2.44%
Wheat Jul 2016   484.25   -12   -2.42%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015   484.75   -4.75   -0.97%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   500.25   -8   -1.57%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   516.5   -7.25   -1.38%
Spring Wheat May 2016   527.25   -7.5   -1.40%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   538.25   -7.25   -1.33%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   441.5   -6.5   -1.45%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   467.75   -7   -1.47%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   482   -6.75   -1.38%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   491.75   -6.75   -1.35%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   501.25   -6.5   -1.28%