Crop futures fall despite stock market rebound

U.S. stock markets surged in relief Wednesday, but that didn’t do anything for crop futures.

They almost all fell, with weakness general.

“Canola’s in trouble,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Wire.

“Canola is still too high.”

The world stock market tumbles were mostly arrested Tuesday and Wednesday, with U.S. markets rebounding on beliefs that the U.S. government might do some more monk eying in the debt and currency markets, or at least be less likely to raise rates next month. U.S. durable goods orders also rose, suggesting its recovery has been continuing.

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Australian farmers are forecast to grow slightly more canola and barley this year, while wheat production may dip, according to the latest estimates from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

The relief did not do much for crop commodities, which fell. For canola, the biggest problem is the declining value of soybean oil, which sets world vegetable oil prices.

With that sagging as big crops keep getting produced overseas and U.S. supplies are ample, canola’s ability to force premium prices due to tight crops weakens.

“Our sense is that we’ll retrace the old steps (we passed) going up,” said Anderson.

“They’ll be the ones going down.”

That means the market will probably get back to the $465 per tonne level reached recently, probably hit $455 and maybe fall to $440, Anderson said.

In agriculture company news, Monsanto abandoned its takeover bid for Syngenta, after the latter company rejected the former’s nearly US$47 billion offer, which had been beefed up from $45 billion.

The lack of commodities’ ability or willingness to follow the equity markets Wednesday was an interesting element of the volatile trade. Not all markets are trending together.

Currency volatility continues to be general.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 71 cents to US$38.60 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.17 cents, down from 75.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3303.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   469.70   -7.70   -1.61%
Canola Jan 2016   474.20   -6.50   -1.35%
Canola Mar 2016   476.50   -5.70   -1.18%
Canola May 2016   477.00   -5.10   -1.06%
Canola Jul 2016   475.80   -4.40   -0.92%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   226.00   +3.00   +1.35%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   226.00   +3.00   +1.35%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   230.00   +3.00   +1.32%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016   340.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015 191.90 -8.70 -4.34%
Barley Dec 2015 191.90 -8.70 -4.34%

Barley Mar 2016 193.90 -8.70 -4.29%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015   877.75   -16.5   -1.85%
Soybeans Nov 2015   865   -12.75   -1.45%
Soybeans Jan 2016   868.5   -12.5   -1.42%
Soybeans Mar 2016   869.25   -12   -1.36%
Soybeans May 2016   872.5   -12   -1.36%
Soybeans Jul 2016   875.75   -12.5   -1.41%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   324.4   -3.2   -0.98%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015   317.1   -3.7   -1.15%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015   313.9   -3.2   -1.01%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   26.12   -0.7   -2.61%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015   26.2   -0.71   -2.64%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015   26.44   -0.71   -2.62%

Corn Sep 2015   361.75   -3.75   -1.03%
Corn Dec 2015   373.25   -3.75   -0.99%
Corn Mar 2016   384.25   -3.75   -0.97%
Corn May 2016   390.75   -3.5   -0.89%
Corn Jul 2016   395   -3.25   -0.82%

Oats Sep 2015   210.75   -2   -0.94%
Oats Dec 2015   215.75   -3.5   -1.60%
Oats Mar 2016   218.75   -6.25   -2.78%
Oats May 2016   226.75   -6.25   -2.68%
Oats Jul 2016   227.75   -6.25   -2.67%

Wheat Sep 2015   489.75   -5.25   -1.06%
Wheat Dec 2015   494.25   -5.25   -1.05%
Wheat Mar 2016   501   -4.75   -0.94%

Wheat May 2016 505.25 -4 -0.79%
Wheat Jul 2016 508 -3.5 -0.68%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015   496.25   -0.5   -0.10%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   514   unch   0.00%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   531.25   +0.5   +0.09%
Spring Wheat May 2016   542.5   +1   +0.18%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   553   +1.25   +0.23%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   466.5   +0.5   +0.11%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   489.25   +0.25   +0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   503.75   +0.5   +0.10%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   513.75   +0.75   +0.15%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   523.5   +0.5   +0.10%