Markets recover after volatile trading day

Wild markets and wild volatility ended up with tame closing numbers for most North American crop futures as crops bounced back from early losses to close mixed.

As North American crop futures markets closed, the stock markets were still open and continuing to see big swings in direction, but crops seemed less twitchy.

“Everything rebounded,” said P.I. Financial broker Ken Ball.

“Canola has shown some good strength.”

A massive selloff in Chinese stock markets overnight triggered mass selling in North American and Europe, with money pouring out of the U.S. and back into European wealth managers’ hands.

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When futures markets opened, crop prices shot downward but soon began a recovery, as did the equity markets.

Wheat markets were particularly resilient, with prices recovering so much that all three main nearby wheat futures contracts ended up with small gains.

In the end, canola ended a few cents down, but only by about half as much as soybeans. That leaves canola now premium-priced compared to soybeans, which once was common but in recent years has been less visible.

The crop’s bounce back kept alive hopes that prices might be getting somewhere close to a bottom after months of weakness. While equity markets have been maintaining record values for months, crops are far off their peaks of past years, having already absorbed much of the damage from China’s presumed future economic weakness.

At some point, crops should find a base.

“This is getting close to where you might expect something to happen,” said Ball.

Brent crude was floating above $40 per barrel Monday afternoon, but still giving the willies to those hoping to see an end to oil and other commodity weakness.

Contact ed.white@producer.com

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $2.21 to US$38.24 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.68 cents, down from 76.05 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3213.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   477.70   -2.50   -0.52%
Canola Jan 2016   478.20   -1.90   -0.40%
Canola Mar 2016   478.00   -2.20   -0.46%
Canola May 2016   477.00   -1.60   -0.33%
Canola Jul 2016   475.30   -1.10   -0.23%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   226.00   +2.00   +0.89%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   226.00   +2.00   +0.89%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   230.00   +2.00   +0.88%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   200.60   -1.50   -0.74%
Barley Dec 2015   200.60   -1.50   -0.74%
Barley Mar 2016   202.60   -1.50   -0.73%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015   892.75   -12.5   -1.38%
Soybeans Nov 2015   874   -15.5   -1.74%
Soybeans Jan 2016   877.5   -16   -1.79%
Soybeans Mar 2016   876.25   -17   -1.90%
Soybeans May 2016   878.75   -15.25   -1.71%
Soybeans Jul 2016   883.25   -14.75   -1.64%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   326.4   -0.5   -0.15%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015   318.6   +0.8   +0.25%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015   315.2   +0.6   +0.19%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   26.55   -0.81   -2.96%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015   26.63   -0.81   -2.95%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015   26.86   -0.81   -2.93%

Corn Sep 2015   368.75   +3.5   +0.96%
Corn Dec 2015   380.5   +3.25   +0.86%
Corn Mar 2016   391.75   +3   +0.77%
Corn May 2016   398   +3.25   +0.82%
Corn Jul 2016   402   +3   +0.75%

Oats Sep 2015   215.75   +1.5   +0.70%
Oats Dec 2015   220.75   -4.75   -2.11%
Oats Mar 2016   227.75   -5.5   -2.36%
Oats May 2016   235   -5.75   -2.39%
Oats Jul 2016   236   -5.75   -2.38%

Wheat Sep 2015   503.25   +3.75   +0.75%
Wheat Dec 2015   508   +4   +0.79%
Wheat Mar 2016   512.5   +4.5   +0.89%
Wheat May 2016   515.75   +5.25   +1.03%
Wheat Jul 2016   517.75   +5.25   +1.02%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015   504.5   +2.5   +0.50%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   522   +3.5   +0.68%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   539.25   +4   +0.75%
Spring Wheat May 2016   550   +4   +0.73%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   560   +4   +0.72%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   475.75   +4.75   +1.01%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   497.5   +4.75   +0.96%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   511.5   +4.5   +0.89%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   521   +4.25   +0.82%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   530.5   +4   +0.76%

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