| Yield in bu. per acre | % change | ||
| 2014 | 2015 | ||
| Spring wheat | 45.7 | 38.9 | -14.8 |
| Durum | 40.4 | 27.8 | -32 |
| Canola | 34.4 | 29.3 | -14.8 |
| Total production — million tonnes | |||
| All wheat | 27.28 | 23.1 | -15.30% |
| Spring wheat | 20.88 | 18.14 | -13.10% |
| Durum | 5.19 | 4.19 | -19.30% |
| Canola | 15.5 | 12.49 | -19.40% |
| 2015 is CWB forecast from tour | |||
By Ed White
Proof of drought-damaged crops on the Canadian Prairies wasn’t enough to stave off losses in crop futures Friday, as good weather and growing conditions in the U.S. Midwest trumped the northern situation.
The Friday losses weren’t large, but the good silking weather for corn resulted in that crop’s futures posting the worst weekly sell-off since July 2014, taking it down about six percent for the week.
The CWB predicts a spring wheat yield of 38.9 bushels per acre, which would be the worst since 2007. Two years ago the average wheat yield was 53 bu. per acre and last year was 45.7.
The CWB forecasts a 18.14 million tonne spring wheat crop, down 13.1 percent from last year
The CWB predicts durum yield at 27.8 bu. per acre, which would be the worst in a decade and far beneath last year’s 40.9 bu. and 2013-14’s 48.4 bu.
It sees the durum crop at 4.19 million tonnes, down 19.3 percent from last year.
Canola average yield should drop below 30 bu. an acre for the first time since 2007, hitting 29.3 bu.
CWB sees the canola crop at 12.49 million tonnes, more than 19 percent less than last year’s number and over five million tonnes beneath 2013-14.
But market players have been playing with sub-13 million tonne crop for a couple of weeks and there was little shock at the prediction.
The Canadian Oilseed Crushers Association reported that its members crushed eight percent less in the week ending July 22 than they did the previous week, going through 155,202 tonnes.
That represents a 77.7 percent crushing capacity utilization, which is beneath the year’s generally higher rate than last year, but this is the time of year in which many plants begin reducing crush due to planned maintenance shutdowns.
Canadian crushers have processed nearly 7.1 million tonnes of canola this year so far.
The bearish tone in U.S. markets has much to do with good growing conditions for corn and soybeans, which are recovering from saturated conditions in the eastern corn belt earlier this summer.
The impact of the CWB findings was hard to extract from the day’s market action, however wheat was stronger overall than corn or soybeans, spring wheat was stronger than winter wheat’s, canola was stronger than soybeans and soy oil, and oats fell more than any other crop futures.
That could be taken as a sign that the markets are heeding the CWB findings, giving them relative strength compared to the main U.S. crops.
Commodities were generally weaker today, helping add a bearish tone.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 31 cents to US$48.14 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.57 cents, down from 76.75 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3060.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 79.13 points, or 0.55 percent, at 14,186.24.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 163.39 points, or 0.92 percent, to 17,568.53, the S&P 500 lost 22.5 points, or 1.07 percent, to 2,079.65 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 57.78 points, or 1.12 percent, to 5,088.63.
For the week, the Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 3.1 percent, the S&P fell 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq slid 2.3 percent in their largest weekly drops since the last week of March.
The 2.9 percent fall on the Dow was the largest for any week since January.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 508.80 -7.60 -1.47%
Canola Jan 2016 509.00 -7.90 -1.53%
Canola Mar 2016 506.80 -7.40 -1.44%
Canola May 2016 503.20 -7.00 -1.37%
Canola Jul 2016 498.00 -6.70 -1.33%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 224.00 -2.00 -0.88%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 224.00 -2.00 -0.88%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 228.00 -2.00 -0.87%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 345.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 360.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 212.10 -5.30 -2.44%
Barley Dec 2015 212.10 -6.00 -2.75%
Barley Mar 2016 214.10 -6.00 -2.73%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2015 991.25 -18.75 -1.86%
Soybeans Sep 2015 967.25 -19 -1.93%
Soybeans Nov 2015 965 -15.5 -1.58%
Soybeans Jan 2016 970.75 -15.5 -1.57%
Soybeans Mar 2016 967.25 -14.75 -1.50%
Soybeans May 2016 960 -12.75 -1.31%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 354.8 -4.2 -1.17%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 336.8 -2.3 -0.68%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 30.48 -0.71 -2.28%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 30.56 -0.71 -2.27%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 30.64 -0.72 -2.30%
Corn Sep 2015 392.5 -10.75 -2.67%
Corn Dec 2015 402.75 -11 -2.66%
Corn Mar 2016 412.75 -10.75 -2.54%
Corn May 2016 418.25 -11 -2.56%
Corn Jul 2016 422.75 -10.5 -2.42%
Oats Sep 2015 228.75 -7.75 -3.28%
Oats Dec 2015 242.5 -6.5 -2.61%
Oats Mar 2016 253.75 -6.25 -2.40%
Oats May 2016 258.5 -6.25 -2.36%
Oats Jul 2016 259.5 -6.25 -2.35%
Wheat Sep 2015 511.75 -9.75 -1.87%
Wheat Dec 2015 519.75 -9 -1.70%
Wheat Mar 2016 527 -8 -1.50%
Wheat May 2016 531.25 -7.75 -1.44%
Wheat Jul 2016 532.5 -8 -1.48%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 545 -7.75 -1.40%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 562.5 -7.25 -1.27%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 578.25 -7.25 -1.24%
Spring Wheat May 2016 588.25 -7 -1.18%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 596.25 -6.75 -1.12%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 507.25 -9.75 -1.89%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 527.25 -9.75 -1.82%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 541.75 -9.75 -1.77%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 550.5 -9.75 -1.74%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 557.75 -9.5 -1.67%
ed.white@producer.com
