Canada ships to the European Union and United States while Argentina exports to Brazil
A large increase in bean production from a major exporter isn’t expected to drag down North American prices, says a pulse crop analyst.
Stat Publishing is forecasting 500,000 tonnes of production in Argentina based on conversations with processors, which is nearly double the previous five-year average.
The forecast includes 200,000 tonnes of white alubia beans and 220,000 tonnes of black beans.
Stat Publishing editor Brian Clancey said Argentina’s large crop is having a negative impact on international bean prices but not on North American prices.
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“Tight stocks here have combined with anxiety about new crop bean prospects to keep the market firm,” he said in an email.
“If there are big problems with Manitoba because of the frost events, that would be the more important issue for North America because it constrains domestic supplies and makes it harder to meet export sales from Canada.”
Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, is also shrugging off Argentina’s big harvest because most of it is shipped to Brazil, and Canada doesn’t really compete in that market.
Canada is more of a player in the United States and the European Union. He doesn’t see much to get excited about in bean markets and expects more of the same unless there is a wreck somewhere in the North American Free Trade Agreement region, which doesn’t appear to be likely.
Statistics Canada believes growers planted 281,580 acres of beans in Canada, which is a 10 percent decline from last year.
Penner said that estimate doesn’t take into account key bean growing areas. He believes acreage will be flat to slightly larger than last year.
The crop is in good condition in Ontario, but Manitoba growers have been contending with excess moisture and frost. It has been dry in Alberta, but that doesn’t matter because the crop is irrigated there.
“It’s early days, but (the Canadian crop) is in decent shape,” said Penner.
The U.S. is forecasting 1.74 million acres, slightly higher than last year’s 1.72 million acre crop.
Beans went in the ground early in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Penner said crop conditions are a mixed bag in other regions, such as the Pacific Northwest.
Mexico had a smaller winter bean crop than the previous year, but that typically accounts for one-quarter of the country’s annual production. It is too early to tell the condition of the summer crop.
China is the other main exporting region to watch.
“I don’t think they’re going to be back in the market in a big way this year,” he said.
Penner said European demand tends to be steady year-to-year, so he is not expecting much change in that market.
U.S. demand will increase if Mexico has a poor crop.
