Ample supplies pressure crop futures lower Tuesday

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Published: April 7, 2015

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Crop markets are again focused on large South American harvests and prospects for ample year-end stocks, resulting in a generally down day in North American markets.
The trade was also positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Fund selling and weaker soybeans weighed down canola.
May closed down $4.50 or almost one percent at $453.80 per tonne and November was $445.90, down $5.
Wheat was a little higher early in the day, but closed lower.
Yesterday after the market closed the USDA issued its first weekly National crop progress report since November, although individual states had been reporting through March.

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The national report said 44 percent of the winter wheat crop was good to excellent, a bit better than the trade’s expectation of 42 percent.
Last year the crop was substantially worse, coming in at 35 percent good to excellent.
The five-year average for early April is 47 percent. Last year it was
Zeroing in on the largest hard red winter state, Kansas, the crop was rated 33 percent good to excellent, down 6 points from last week.
Last year at this point, Kansas was 29 percent good to excellent.
Neighbouring Oklahoma is fairing much better than last year. Good to excellent this year is 43 percent compared to just 15 percent last year.
In the U.S. significant rain accumulations are in the forecast for much of the Midwest. The moisture is expected to edge into eastern areas of the Plains, but the driest parts of the hard red winter wheat belt in the west are expected to get little relief.
Meanwhile in the Black Sea region, crops are being helped by excellent spring weather.
Reuters reported analysts expect the U.S. Agriculture Department’s monthly supply and demand report on Thursday to show domestic end stocks of soybeans for the 2014-15 crop year at 370 million bushels, down from the government’s March estimate but still the highest in eight years.
Dry weather in Argentina is helping farmers get a good start to the harvest. Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the soybean crop at a record 58.5 million tonnes, well above the record 54.5 million last year.
The TSX composite and U.S. stock indexes were higher early in the day, supported by merger and acquisition news involving FedEx bid for a Dutch company.
However Wall Street closed lower on lower utilities.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 8.44 points, or 0.05 percent, to 17,872.41, the S&P 500 lost 4.47 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,076.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.08 points, or 0.14 percent, to 4,910.23.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.84 to US$53.98 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.08 cents, down from 80.31 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2488.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2015 453.80 -4.50 -0.98%
Canola Jul 2015 454.10 -4.50 -0.98%
Canola Nov 2015 445.90 -5.00 -1.11%
Canola Jan 2016 446.30 -5.30 -1.17%
Canola Mar 2016 446.30 -5.70 -1.26%

Milling Wheat May 2015 239.00 -2.00 -0.83%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 236.00 -2.00 -0.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 237.00 -2.00 -0.84%

Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 318.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2015 205.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 204.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 189.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans May 2015 971 -7.5 -0.77%
Soybeans Jul 2015 976.25 -7.25 -0.74%
Soybeans Aug 2015 975.75 -7.25 -0.74%
Soybeans Sep 2015 967.75 -6 -0.62%
Soybeans Nov 2015 963.25 -5 -0.52%
Soybeans Jan 2016 969.25 -4.75 -0.49%

Soybean Meal May 2015 319.7 -3.3 -1.02%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 319.3 -3.4 -1.05%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 318.7 -2.8 -0.87%

Soybean Oil May 2015 31.03 -0.23 -0.74%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 31.2 -0.24 -0.76%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 31.27 -0.23 -0.73%

Corn May 2015 383 -2 -0.52%
Corn Jul 2015 391 -2 -0.51%
Corn Sep 2015 398.75 -1.75 -0.44%
Corn Dec 2015 407.75 -2 -0.49%
Corn Mar 2016 417.5 -1.75 -0.42%

Oats May 2015 273 +4 +1.49%
Oats Jul 2015 273.25 +3.25 +1.20%
Oats Sep 2015 276.5 +3.75 +1.37%
Oats Dec 2015 277.25 +3.5 +1.28%
Oats Mar 2016 284.5 +3.5 +1.25%

Wheat May 2015 526 -1.75 -0.33%
Wheat Jul 2015 525 -2.75 -0.52%
Wheat Sep 2015 533.5 -3 -0.56%
Wheat Dec 2015 546.75 -3.25 -0.59%
Wheat Mar 2016 559.75 -3 -0.53%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2015 583.5 -6.25 -1.06%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 589 -6.25 -1.05%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 596 -6.25 -1.04%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 607 -6 -0.98%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 619 -5.5 -0.88%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 565.25 -6.75 -1.18%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 569.75 -6 -1.04%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 580 -6 -1.02%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 594.5 -6 -1.00%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 605.75 -6.25 -1.02%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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