Market increases focus on planting speculation

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Published: February 23, 2015

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May and July canola futures edged higher on speculative buying interest, end user demand and a weaker loonie.

March closed a few pennies lower.

Reuters released a Canadian seeding survey of 12 analysts.

Forecasts for canola acreage ranged 19.3 million acres to 21 million with an average of 19.9 million.

Last year’s seeded area was 20.325 million.

See the full story here: Canadian farmers seen sowing slightly less canola, more durum.

A Louis Dreyfus official at the Grain World conference in Winnipeg today forecast that 2015-16 year end canola stocks could fall to less than a million tonnes. Agriculture Canada forecasts 2015-16 year end stocks at 1.4 million tonnes.

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Detail from the front of the CBOT building in Chicago. (Vito Palmisano/iStock/Getty Images)

U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.

U.S. corn and Chicago wheat fell today on a strong U.S. dollar that weighed on that country’s ability to export.

May soybeans ended only slightly down after bouncing from session lows. March was unchanged.

The fall in soybeans was limited by competition between crushers and exporters for available supply.

Soy oil fell about one percent.

Weekly U.S. soy export inspections were below a million tonnes for the first time since early October

Minneapolis wheat edged higher, with support from Canadian outlooks for reduced spring wheat plantings. AgriTrend today suggested Canadian non-durum wheat would be down six percent this spring.

The Reuters seeding survey for spring wheat ranged 16 million to 18.1 million to average 17.3 million. In 2014 farmers seeded 17.41 million.

However, Chicago and Kansas wheat edged lower as the U.S. is overpriced relative to other sources of wheat.

North African buyers last week turned to the European Union and Romania for supply.

“The U.S. wheat market could break down to below $5 this week as it is facing stiff competition from suppliers in Europe, mainly France,” said Kaname Gokon, general manager of research at brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo.

Morocco is on course to harvest a record cereal crop of more than 10 million tonnes this year after favourable rainfall so far during the growing season, a farm ministry official told Reuters.

The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in more than a week after Greece late Friday struck a four-month bailout deal with euro zone finance ministers to avoid default.

Corn was also a bit lower.

“Export demand has been reasonable but the ethanol grind has been down. So overall demand, while good, hasn’t been extremely robust,” Dennis Collins, market analyst at Chicago advisory Trilateral, told Reuters.

USDA’s outlook conference held in Washington, D.C., last week reminded traders that U.S. grain and oilseeds stocks will be plentiful in the coming year.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.36 to US$49.45 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.49 cents, down from US79.96 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2580.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended 28.02 points, or 0.18 percent, higher at 15,200.26

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 23.6 points, or 0.13 percent, to 18,116.84, the S&P 500 lost 0.64 points, or 0.03 percent, to 2,109.66 and the Nasdaq Composite added 5.01 points, or 0.1 percent, to 4,960.97.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015       469.70       -0.40       -0.09%

Canola May 2015       467.50       +1.40       +0.30%

Canola Jul 2015       462.10       +2.20       +0.48%

Canola Nov 2015       450.90       +2.30       +0.51%

Canola Jan 2016       452.50       +2.30       +0.51%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       221.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat May 2015       230.00       unch       0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       233.00       +1.00       +0.43%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       333.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015       323.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       313.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2015       184.00       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2015       186.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2015       188.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015       999.25       unch       0.00%

Soybeans May 2015       1001.5       -0.75       -0.07%

Soybeans Jul 2015       1006       -0.75       -0.07%

Soybeans Aug 2015       1005.25       -0.5       -0.05%

Soybeans Sep 2015       991       -0.25       -0.03%

Soybeans Nov 2015       979.75       -0.25       -0.03%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2015       348.3       +0.8       +0.23%

Soybean Meal May 2015       338.5       -0.2       -0.06%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       335.4       -0.2       -0.06%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2015       31.14       -0.34       -1.08%

Soybean Oil May 2015       31.33       -0.34       -1.07%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       31.54       -0.32       -1.00%

 

Corn Mar 2015       378.75       -6.5       -1.69%

Corn May 2015       386.75       -6.25       -1.59%

Corn Jul 2015       394.5       -6       -1.50%

Corn Sep 2015       401.75       -5.75       -1.41%

Corn Dec 2015       410.5       -5.75       -1.38%

 

Oats Mar 2015       272       -1.5       -0.55%

Oats May 2015       272       -1.5       -0.55%

Oats Jul 2015       276.5       -0.25       -0.09%

Oats Sep 2015       284.5       +1       +0.35%

Oats Dec 2015       286.5       +0.75       +0.26%

 

Wheat Mar 2015       505.75       -4.5       -0.88%

Wheat May 2015       504       -3       -0.59%

Wheat Jul 2015       508.75       -2.75       -0.54%

Wheat Sep 2015       517.25       -2.5       -0.48%

Wheat Dec 2015       530       -1.75       -0.33%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       567.75       +1       +0.18%

Spring Wheat May 2015       568       +1       +0.18%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       572.5       +0.75       +0.13%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       579.25       +1.5       +0.26%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       591.25       +2       +0.34%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       531.25       -2       -0.38%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       536       -2.25       -0.42%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       543       -2.75       -0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       555.5       -2.5       -0.45%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       570.25       -2.25       -0.39%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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