Strong U.S. soy exports lift oilseeds on Thursday

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Published: February 12, 2015

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Canola closed slightly higher with the soy complex on Thursday.

Corn and wheat were a little lower.

Canola’s gains were limited by a stronger loonie.

Soybeans rose on the strength of good weekly exports.

The U.S. Agriculture Department reported weekly soybean export sales of 746,200 tonnes (old-crop and new-crop combined), topping forecasts that ranged from 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes.

Brazil’s government crop supply agency Conab cut its forecast for the country’s 2014-15 soybean production to 94.6 million tonnes from 95.9 million, Reuters reported.

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It also cut its export outlook to 47.8 million tonnes from 49.6 million.

Wheat closed lower on strong competition in the global market.

There had been hopes the American wheat prices had fallen enough to encourage more sales but there were no bullish surprises in the USDA weekly export sales report.

Sales were 409,322 tonnes for 2014-15 and 9,500 tonnes for 2015-16, in line with trade expectations.

Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine have agreed on a deal to end fighting in eastern Ukraine so its corn and wheat exports should continue unimpeded.

Corn dipped despite favourable weekly export numbers that came in at one million tonnes for 2014-15, as well as 118,000 tonnes for next season. That topped expectations.

But weak ethanol markets weighed on corn.

Ethanol stock are the most in more than two years as producers boosted output for the first time in three weeks, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed.

The latest 10-year trade projections from the USDA also were negative for corn.

A long held hope of the U.S. corn industry was delivered a blow today.

The industry has hoped that corn exports to China would start to rise substantially in the next few years. The United States Department of Agriculture long-term forecasts also reflected that assumption.

But the USDA today released its long-term agricultural projections to 2024-25 and it now expects China’s corn imports by the final year to be 7.2 million tonnes and in 2023-24 to be 6.5 million.

Last year’s long-term projection for 2023-24 was 22 million tonnes, so the reduction in this report is about 15 million tonnes.

However, USDA bumped up imports by other countries so the global 2023-24 corn trade forecast dropped by only about 4.8 million tonnes compared to last year.

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.37 to US$51.21 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.24 cents, up from US79.15 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2462.

 

Strong tech company quarterly profit reports and the cooling of tensions in the Ukraine conflict supported stocks prices.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 110.24 points, or 0.62 percent, to 17,972.38, the S&P 500 gained 19.95 points, or 0.96 percent, to 2,088.48, and the Nasdaq Composite added 56.43 points, or 1.18 percent, to 4,857.61.

 

A big shake up at Bombardier limited gains at the TSX. It closed up 77.02 points of 0.51 percent at 15,228.52

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 15              463.20       +1.60

Canola May 15       459.60       +1.70

Canola Jul 15       455.90       +1.50

Canola Nov 15       445.80       +1.20

Canola Jan 16       448.50       +2.40

 

Milling Wheat Mar 15       224.00       -1.00

Milling Wheat May 15       233.00       -1.00

Milling Wheat Jul 15       235.00       -2.00

 

Durum Wheat Mar 15       333.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 15       323.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 15       313.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 15       195.00       unch       0.00%

Barley May 15       197.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 15       199.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 15       983.75       +6       +0.61%

Soybeans May 15       986.75       +6       +0.61%

Soybeans Jul 15       991.5              +5.75       +0.58%

Soybeans Aug 15       990.75       +6.25       +0.63%

Soybeans Sep 15       975.25       +5.25       +0.54%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 15       330.5       +0.9       +0.27%

Soybean Meal May 15       323.7       +1.5       +0.47%

Soybean Meal Jul 15       321.4       +2.1       +0.66%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 15       32.01       +0.26       +0.82%

Soybean Oil May 15       32.2       +0.24       +0.75%

Soybean Oil Jul 15       32.38       +0.24       +0.75%

 

Corn Mar 15       383       -2.75       -0.71%

Corn May 15       391       -2.75       -0.70%

Corn Jul 15       398.25       -3       -0.75%

Corn Sep 15       404.5       -2.75       -0.68%

Corn Dec 15       413       -2.25       -0.54%

 

Oats Mar 15       273.25       -0.25       -0.09%

Oats May 15       273.25       -2.5       -0.91%

Oats Jul 15       276       -2.5       -0.90%

Oats Sep 15       280.75       -2.5       -0.88%

Oats Dec 15       282.75       -2.5       -0.88%

 

Wheat Mar 15       521.25       -4.5       -0.86%

Wheat May 15       519.75       -4       -0.76%

Wheat Jul 15       522.5       -4.5       -0.85%

Wheat Sep 15       529.75       -4.75       -0.89%

Wheat Dec 15       543.25       -4.75       -0.87%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 15       574.25       -1.75       -0.30%

Spring Wheat May 15       575       -3       -0.52%

Spring Wheat Jul 15       578.5       -3.75       -0.64%

Spring Wheat Sep 15       585       -4.5       -0.76%

Spring Wheat Dec 15       594.5       -4.75       -0.79%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 15       554       -5.25       -0.94%

Hard Red Wheat May 15       555       -5.5       -0.98%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 15       559.25       -5.5       -0.97%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 15       569.5       -5.5       -0.96%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 15       583.25       -6.25       -1.06%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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