SAO PAULO, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Local analysts at AgRural and FCStone have cut their forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop after dry January weather hurt the crop’s potential, though it is still expected to set a record.
AgRural cut 3.1 million tonnes from its estimate for the crop to 91.9 million tonnes in a report published Friday evening. Average yields in Brazil are now estimated at 48.6 bags per hectare, down from 50.3 million tonnes previously.
The consultancy said unusually late planting after another bout of dry weather in October meant the crop was still developing in the center-west region in January, making it especially susceptible to the recent drought.
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Harvesting is now behind the year-ago pace and 9 percent complete nationwide versus 12 percent at the same time in 2014, AgRural said.
Brazilian analysts at international FCStone also cut their forecast for the 2014/15 soybean crop on Friday, to 92.8 million tonnes from 93.5 million tonnes a month earlier.
Dry weather most affected the center-west state of Goias, but plentiful rainfall in the southern growing region limited damage to the overall crop somewhat, FCStone said in its report. Its forecast for production in No. 3 growing state Rio Grande do Sul, in Brazil’s far south, was raised by 400,000 tonnes.
Rains in the center-west have improved in February and are expected to prevent further losses though they could also hold up harvesting.
Government crop supply agency Conab will update its official forecast for the crop on Thursday. Despite the lower estimates, the crop is still expected to surpass the 86.12 million tonnes harvested a year earlier due to an expansion in area planted.
