Grains, canola fall even with bullish USDA report

By Ed White

Markets trotted into Canada’s Thanksgiving Day weekend like a fat turkey: so overfed that an awkwardly reluctant waddle was the only thing possible.

Even though the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that some thought could give bulls some room to run, the markets instead turned down for corn, soybeans and even spring wheat.

Only Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat futures contracts rose three to five cents on the day, reflecting the most bullish news in WASDE: world ending stocks for wheat were reduced four million tonnes  to 192.59 from 196.38.

November soybeans dropped 19 cents per bushel to $9.22 while December corn fell 10 cents to $3.34.

Canola dropped $5.70 per tonne on the November contract to $398.90 and January fell $6.10 to $405.20.

December spring wheat futures fell less than a penny to $5.53 per bushel.

Both Kansas City and Chicago winter wheat futures rose five cents, which was 10 cents off their initial peak post-report.

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Ken Ball of P.I.Financial said the immediate rally on release of WASDE might have been short-covering from traders who had gambled on WASDE finding “monster” production numbers in one or more crops.

With only moderately larger production numbers, generally slightly lower than analyst pre-report expectations, there wasn’t an immediate potential for a big selloff.

But as the session wore on, bearish traders found the WASDE to reconfirm their belief that U.S. crops are huge and likely to grow in coming USDA reports.

Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications said the confirmation of record U.S. crops allows bears to push down on crop prices again, with the recent price recoveries vulnerable to being lost and new lows reached.

“We’ll test those lows and see how many buyers step in,” said Anderson.

On the week canola fell 1.2 percent, soybeans rose 1.1 percent, corn climbed 3.3 percent and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 1.8 percent.

The grains market traded against a background of falling stock market prices as traders became increasingly uneasy about the weakness of the global economy, with the German economy sagging and China’s growth slowing.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014    398.90    -5.70    -1.41%
Canola Jan 2015    405.20    -6.10    -1.48%
Canola Mar 2015    412.50    -5.90    -1.41%

Canola May 2015    417.90    -6.10    -1.44%
Canola Jul 2015    421.60    -6.40    -1.50%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014    211.00    +4.00    +1.93%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014    214.00    +3.00    +1.42%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015    222.00    +3.00    +1.37%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014    350.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014    356.50    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015    357.50    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 2014    115.50    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 2014    117.50    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 2015    120.50    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014    922.5    -19.5    -2.07%
Soybeans Jan 2015    930.5    -19.5    -2.05%
Soybeans Mar 2015    938.75    -19.75    -2.06%
Soybeans May 2015    947    -19.75    -2.04%
Soybeans Jul 2015    953.75    -20.25    -2.08%
Soybeans Aug 2015    956.25    -20.5    -2.10%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014    339.3    +6.3    +1.89%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014    311    -2.5    -0.80%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015    307.5    -3.6    -1.16%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014    32.28    -0.6    -1.82%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014    32.44    -0.57    -1.73%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015    32.71    -0.58    -1.74%

Corn Dec 2014    334    -10.75    -3.12%

Corn Mar 2015    346.75    -11    -3.07%
Corn May 2015    355.75    -10.75    -2.93%
Corn Jul 2015    363.75    -10.25    -2.74%
Corn Sep 2015    371.75    -9.75    -2.56%

Oats Dec 2014    342.75    -1    -0.29%
Oats Mar 2015    327.25    -0.25    -0.08%
Oats May 2015    320.5    -3    -0.93%
Oats Jul 2015    315.25    -3.5    -1.10%
Oats Sep 2015    320    -5    -1.54%

Wheat Dec 2014    498.5    +5.25    +1.06%
Wheat Mar 2015    509.5    +4.25    +0.84%
Wheat May 2015    515.25    +3.5    +0.68%
Wheat Jul 2015    522.75    +3.25    +0.63%
Wheat Sep 2015    534    +3.25    +0.61%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014    553.25    -0.25    -0.05%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    563.5    -2.5    -0.44%
Spring Wheat May 2015    573.25    -2.25    -0.39%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    583.25    -2.5    -0.43%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015    593.5    -2.75    -0.46%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014    577.75    +5    +0.87%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    578.75    +3.5    +0.61%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    578.75    +2.5    +0.43%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    572.75    +1    +0.17%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015    584.75    +1    +0.17%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 5 cents at $85.82 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 89.47 cents US, down from 89.69 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1177 Cdn.

Stocks plunged as traders became alarmed by the slowing global economy. Canada posted strong September job growth. For the week, the TSX composite fell 3.8 percent, the Nasdaq plummeted by 4.5 percent, the Dow tumbled by 2.7 percent and the S&P 500 fell 3.1 percent .