Canola unchanged as market awaits StatsCan report

By D’Arce McMillan

Markets Editor

Twitter @ darcemcmillan

November canola closed unchanged and most crop futures barely moved Wednesday with no market-changing news.

Overnight rain stalled harvest in central and eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. Sharply colder weather is expected Thursday and Friday in much of the central Prairies before temperatures recover to more seasonal levels by the weekend.

Traders are awaiting Statistics Canada’s crop production forecast on Friday. Traders surveyed by Reuters expect canola production to be 14.6 million tonnes, up from the summer forecast of 13.9 million.

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The trade expects all wheat production to be 28 million tonnes, up just 300,000 tonnes from the summer forecast, Reuters said.

Nothing has changed the expectation of giant corn and soybean crops in the United States this year.

Palm oil, which rallied through September on stronger than expected exports and lower than expected production, edged lower today, weighed down by the prospect of bumper soy oil production. Crude oil is also weighing on veg oil values. Brent crude, the international price for oil, is at a two-year low as global supplies rise and economic growth remains anemic.

Some in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are suggesting the group needs to restrict production to support oil prices.

U.S. corn and soybean futures edged higher on short covering, bargain buying and a stalled harvest after overnight rain in parts of the Midwest.

There will likely be little change in grain prices at least until Oct. 10 when USDA releases its monthly supply and demand report. Traders generally expect the report to be negative for prices, with increased estimates for corn and soybean production.

Chicago wheat was up a penny or two per bushel today but Kansas winter and Minneapolis spring wheat were down a tiny amount.

A bit of good news for wheat came in a Reuters news story that said Russian wheat prices had risen above world prices causing it to lose out on recent tenders issued by importers.

The speculation is that the Russian ban on imported meat and other foods has raised demand for domestic food, lifting the price of domestic grain.

Russia has produced a near record crop but domestic demand is expected to be up because of the import ban and because its annexation of Crimea and refugees from eastern Ukraine have raised the population by several million people, the Reuters story said.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 395.90 unch 0.00%

Canola Jan 2015 402.30 -0.20 -0.05%

Canola Mar 2015 409.30 -0.20 -0.05%

Canola May 2015 416.10 +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Jul 2015 422.30 +0.40 +0.09%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 197.00 +9.00 +4.79%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 202.00 +10.00 +5.21%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 211.00 +10.00 +4.98%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 303.20 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 309.70 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 310.70 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 114.80 -1.20 -1.03%

Barley Dec 2014 116.80 -1.20 -1.02%

Barley Mar 2015 119.50 +0.50 +0.42%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2014 916.75 +3.5 +0.38%

Soybeans Jan 2015 925 +3.75 +0.41%

Soybeans Mar 2015 933.75 +4 +0.43%

Soybeans May 2015 942 +4 +0.43%

Soybeans Jul 2015 948.5 +4 +0.42%

Soybeans Aug 2015 951.25 +3.75 +0.40%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014 305.3 +0.7 +0.23%

Soybean Meal Dec 2014 298.6 -0.3 -0.10%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015 297.3 -0.1 -0.03%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014 32.66 +0.39 +1.21%

Soybean Oil Dec 2014 32.8 +0.43 +1.33%

Soybean Oil Jan 2015 33.08 +0.43 +1.32%

Corn Dec 2014 321.25 +0.5 +0.16%

Corn Mar 2015 334 +0.5 +0.15%

Corn May 2015 342.75 +0.75 +0.22%

Corn Jul 2015 350.25 +0.75 +0.21%

Corn Sep 2015 357.75 +1 +0.28%

Oats Dec 2014 338.75 +3.25 +0.97%

Oats Mar 2015 325.25 +2.75 +0.85%

Oats May 2015 318.5 +2 +0.63%

Oats Jul 2015 314.25 +2 +0.64%

Oats Sep 2015 318.25 +1.75 +0.55%

Wheat Dec 2014 479 +1.25 +0.26%

Wheat Mar 2015 492.25 +1.75 +0.36%

Wheat May 2015 501.25 +2.5 +0.50%

Wheat Jul 2015 509 +4.5 +0.89%

Wheat Sep 2015 520.75 +5.25 +1.02%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 531.75 -1.75 -0.33%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 548 -0.25 -0.05%

Spring Wheat May 2015 559.75 +0.5 +0.09%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 570.5 +0.25 +0.04%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 582 +1 +0.17%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 557.5 -0.5 -0.09%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 561.5 -0.25 -0.04%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 565 +0.25 +0.04%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 560.5 +1.25 +0.22%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 573 +2.25 +0.39%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 43 cents at $90.73 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US89.52 cents, up from 89.22 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1171

The appearance of the first diagnosis of Ebola in a patient in the United States weighed down airline stock prices and that weighed on the major U.S. stock indexes.

Monthly reports showed growth in manufacturing activity slowed in September in Canada, the U.S. and the European Union.

In early, unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 155.08 points or 1.04 percent to 14,805.44.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 237.74 points, or 1.39 percent, to 16,805.16, the S&P 500 lost 26.13 points, or 1.32 percent, to 1,946.16 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 71.31 points, or 1.59 percent, to 4,422.09.