MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russia is on track to harvest the second-largest grain crop in its post-Soviet history and largest in six years, agriculture consultancy SovEcon said on Monday.
With exports of 22.5 million tonnes, Russia is expected to be the world’s third largest wheat exporter in the 2014-15 marketing year after the European Union and United States, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
SovEcon has raised its Russian 2014 grain crop forecast to 104to 106 million tonnes by clean weight from 98 million due to favourable weather and high yields, it said.
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“This would be the second largest result in all post-Soviet history,” it said.
Russia harvested a record 108 million tonnes of grain in 2008 and is expected to harvest 100 million tonnes this year, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
SovEcon said it had raised Russia’s 2014 wheat crop forecast to 60 million tonnes from 58 million. It did not provide a new export forecast.
All crop forecasts from Russia’s officials and analysts now include 1.2 million tonnes of grain from the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in early 2014.
Russia had exported 8.75 million tonnes of grains, including 7.7 million tonnes of wheat, between the start of the 2014-15 marketing year on July 1 and Sept. 10, the Agriculture Ministry said in a note, citing customs data.
Grain exports hit a record high of 4.7 million tonnes in August and remain active, supporting prices, SovEcon said. A weak rouble currency and farmers holding sales are also adding to support.
Russian prices for milling wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were flat at US $248 per tonne, the consultancy said. The quote was on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in Russian deep-water ports.
