New numbers are fresh fish for traders and analysts, so many will be keenly watching Statistics Canada’s stocks report Sept. 5.
The report, which lists known stocks as of July 31, provides the best informed guess at the carry-in stocks the Canadian grain trade will be dealing with at the beginning of the 2014-15 crop year.
A flood of crops will soon wash into elevators and delivery points, and the amount of leftover crops from 2013-14’s bin-buster is a key factor in how quickly farmers will be able to market and move the new crop.
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“It’s kind of a big one,” said broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial.
“This is the number everyone’s been tossing around.”
Canola has the most debated ending stocks among the big crops. Will Statistics Canada find 2.8 to three million tonnes, as many in the markets and the previous estimates expect? Will quicker than expected movement at the end of the year have dropped it to 2.5 million tonnes?
Will the crop end up being bigger than previously estimated and leave 3.5 million tonnes in store?
The numbers are also important for crops in which Canada dominates world export production, including many special crops.
Spring wheat is also important because Western Canada is one of the key producers of that crop and the source of much high protein and quality crop.
