Canola edges higher, awaits forecast from CWB crop tour

Canola futures rallied toward the end of trade Friday and closed slightly higher, but over the week they were down slightly.

November canola closed at $442.50 per tonne, up $1.80 per tonne on the day.

November was down 80 cents per tonne on the week, but the close was more than $13 higher than on Tuesday when it set a life of contract low of $429.10.

By staying above $440 per tonne, the contract is staying above the psychologically important level of $10 per bushel.

Some crop watchers think the average canola yield could be lower than average this year.

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After thunder storms Thursday dumped rain in various places in Western Canada and caused some hail and property damage, large parts of central and northern Alberta and Saskatchewan were getting more gentle rain on Friday and it was mostly welcome.

We’ll get a better picture of production next week when the CWB holds a prairie crop tour that will measure yield potential over three routes through the Prairies.

We will have reporters on all three tours who will tweet regular updates and write daily stories for Producer.com. The wrap up is on Thursday July 31 in Regina when the average Prairie yield potential will be announced.

Canadian farmer grain deliveries in June totalled 4.65 million tonnes, shattering the previous record of 4.11 million tonnes set in 2010 and the 10-year average of 3.41 mln

U.S. crop markets rallied a little on Friday on bargain buying and short covering.

August soybeans were slightly higher today while November fell about a penny per bushel.

Over the week, new crop November soybeans fell 1.75 cents.

The market appears to have accounted for the expectation of record soybean yields and support is coming from larger than expected weekly soybean export sales.

Reuters polled 20 analysts about their forecasts for U.S. yields

The average soybean yield in the poll was 45.55 bu. per acre, up slightly from USDA’s forecast of 45.2 bu. and the previous record of 44 bu., set in 2009.

The average of the forecasts for corn was about 170.5 bushels per acre.

That is about five bushels more than the USDA’s forecast of 165.3 bu. per acre.

The previous record yield of 164.7 was set in 2009.

Some parts of the Midwest were getting a little dry but rain on Thursday in western parts were just what the doctor ordered.

Still, December corn rose 2.25 cents today on bargain buying, but over the week it fell 6.75 cents or 1.8 percent.

Wheat saw a bargain buying rally today with the Minneapolis spring wheat December contract rising 7.75 cents, but over the week it was down five cents.

Chicago soft wheat did a little better, climbing 3.5 cents over the week.

Rain is falling in western Europe as farmers try to harvest their wheat and canola and that is causing quality problems. The extent of the damage is not yet clear. More rain was expected this weekend.

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 442.50 +1.80 +0.41%

Canola Jan 2015 446.00 +1.60 +0.36%

Canola Mar 2015 446.80 +1.90 +0.43%

Canola May 2015 443.20 +1.70 +0.39%

Canola Jul 2015 439.10 +1.70 +0.39%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 192.00 +3.00 +1.59%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 197.00 +3.00 +1.55%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 198.00 +3.00 +1.54%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 256.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 257.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 137.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 139.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 140.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2014 1212.25 +4.75 +0.39%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1113.75 +2.25 +0.20%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1083.5 -1.25 -0.12%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1090.25 -1.25 -0.11%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1096.25 -1.25 -0.11%

Soybeans May 2015 1102 -1.5 -0.14%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 398 +2.7 +0.68%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 369.8 +2.6 +0.71%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014 353.5 +0.5 +0.14%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 36.09 -0.15 -0.41%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 36.18 -0.09 -0.25%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014 36.17 -0.08 -0.22%

Corn Sep 2014 363 +1.5 +0.41%

Corn Dec 2014 371.75 +2.25 +0.61%

Corn Mar 2015 383.25 +2 +0.52%

Corn May 2015 391 +1.5 +0.39%

Corn Jul 2015 398.25 +1.25 +0.31%

Oats Sep 2014 348 +11 +3.26%

Oats Dec 2014 332.5 +6.5 +1.99%

Oats Mar 2015 319.25 +4.5 +1.43%

Oats May 2015 313.25 +8.5 +2.79%

Oats Jul 2015 311.5 +8 +2.64%

Wheat Sep 2014 538 +9.25 +1.75%

Wheat Dec 2014 559.75 +9.5 +1.73%

Wheat Mar 2015 581.5 +8.75 +1.53%

Wheat May 2015 596.25 +8 +1.36%

Wheat Jul 2015 608.25 +7.75 +1.29%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 627.75 +8 +1.29%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 635 +7.75 +1.24%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 646.5 +7.5 +1.17%

Spring Wheat May 2015 654.25 +8 +1.24%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 661.5 +8.5 +1.30%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 631.25 +10.75 +1.73%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 645.25 +11 +1.73%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 653 +10.75 +1.67%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015 658.25 +9.75 +1.50%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2015 650.5 +9 +1.40%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 2 cents at $102.09 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 92.47 cents US, down from 93.09 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0745 Cdn.

Strong gold and bank shares lifted the Toronto Stock Exchange but disappointing quarterly results at Visa and Amazon pushed Wall Street lower today.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 60.59 points, or 0.39 percent, at 15,455.04.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 123.23 points, or 0.72 percent, to 16,960.57.

The S&P 500 lost 9.64 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,978.34.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 22.54 points, or 0.5 percent, to 4,449.56.

For the week, the TSX composite gained 1.2 percent, the Dow fell 0.8 percent, the S&P was flat and the Nasdaq rose 0.4 percent.