Canola edges higher; global weather problems emerge

Canola closed slightly higher on Thursday, supported by short covering and rising soybeans.

Today marked the first time in weeks that market report began to talk of weather concerns in key producing regions, with rain at harvest in Europe, pockets of dry soils in the Midwest and a forecast of dry weather in Australia.

Soybeans today rose on better than expected weekly export sales of U.S. soybeans and soy meal. Also

Corn fell on expectations of record U.S. corn yields.

Allendale today estimated average corn yields at 174.1 bushels per acre, up 6.3 bushels per acre from its previous forecast – and well above the current USDA estimate of 165.3 bu.

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U.S. Grains: Wheat ends up after hitting five-year low

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures ended higher on Tuesday after falling to a five-year low on abundant global supplies. Corn also higher, while soybeans end down.

Lanworth’s estimate is 172.8 bushels per acre.

Commodity Weather Group’s estimate is 171 bushels per acre,

Weekly US corn exports were larger than expected. However, China is now requiring U.S. distillers’ dried grain to be certified free of the MIR 162 GMO trait.

Wheat fell on strong competition in the export market and on signs of excellent potential yields in the U.S. spring wheat crop.

Scouts on the Wheat Quality Council annual spring wheat tour pegged the average yield at 48.6 bushels per acre, exceeding the tour’s 2013 forecast of 44.9 and the tour’s prior five-year average of 44.7 bushels per acre.

Scouts on the tour pegged the average yield for durum at 36.6 bushels per acre, down from 41.7 last year. The USDA’s yield forecast is 42.1 bushels per acre.

Crop watchers in Europe expect a large crop, but it is raining and the crop is ready for harvest. The quality is deteriorating with fears mounting that some could fall to feed grade.

Australia’s weather bureau forecast a 60 percent chance of drier than average weather for eastern Australia for the next three months. June rains in the eastern growing areas were above normal, but July has been drier. If the forecast proves correct, yields could suffer.

In Western Canada, central Alberta and Saskatchewan could get significant rain accumulations of an inch or more over today and Friday

Consultancy Farmlink Solutions today released a Prairie-wide crop report.

It said that cereals are generally doing well and could have average to above average yields. Canola is struggling and could have below normal yields although conditions have improved in recent days.

Pulse crops are stressed through areas of Saskatchewan and in places yield potential has fallen off.

A large area of southern Alberta into western Saskatchewan is dry and will need rain to carry the crop through to harvest.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 440.70 +2.70 +0.62%

Canola Jan 2015 444.40 +2.60 +0.59%

Canola Mar 2015 444.90 +2.50 +0.57%

Canola May 2015 441.50 +2.60 +0.59%

Canola Jul 2015 437.40 +2.70 +0.62%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 189.00 -1.00 -0.53%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 195.00 -1.00 -0.51%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 256.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 257.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 137.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 139.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 140.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2014 1207.5 +6.5 +0.54%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1111.5 +9.75 +0.88%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1084.75 +8.25 +0.77%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1091.5 +7.75 +0.72%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1097.5 +6.75 +0.62%

Soybeans May 2015 1103.5 +6.5 +0.59%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 395.3 +3.8 +0.97%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 367.2 +2.9 +0.80%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014 353 +2.8 +0.80%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 36.24 +0.04 +0.11%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 36.27 +0.03 +0.08%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014 36.25 +0.03 +0.08%

Corn Sep 2014 361.5 -1 -0.28%

Corn Dec 2014 369.5 -1.25 -0.34%

Corn Mar 2015 381.25 -1.25 -0.33%

Corn May 2015 389.5 -0.75 -0.19%

Corn Jul 2015 397 -0.5 -0.13%

Oats Sep 2014 337 +4 +1.20%

Oats Dec 2014 326 +1.75 +0.54%

Oats Mar 2015 314.75 -0.5 -0.16%

Oats May 2015 304.75 -1.25 -0.41%

Oats Jul 2015 303.5 -3.5 -1.14%

Wheat Sep 2014 528.75 -2 -0.38%

Wheat Dec 2014 550.25 -4.25 -0.77%

Wheat Mar 2015 572.75 -5 -0.87%

Wheat May 2015 588.25 -5.5 -0.93%

Wheat Jul 2015 600.5 -6.5 -1.07%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 619.75 -1.25 -0.20%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 627.25 -2.5 -0.40%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 639 -3.5 -0.54%

Spring Wheat May 2015 646.25 -4 -0.62%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 653 -4.5 -0.68%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 620.5 -3 -0.48%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 634.25 -2.25 -0.35%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 642.25 -2.5 -0.39%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015 648.5 -2.75 -0.42%

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2015 641.5 -1.25 -0.19%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.05 at $102.07 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 93.09 cents US, little changed from 93.10 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0742 Cdn.

The TSX composite was almost flat, up just 0.07 point, at 15,394.45.

The Dow Jones industrial average dipped 2.83 points or 0.02 percent, to end at 17,083.80.

The S&P 500 gained 0.97 of a point or 0.05 percent to 1,987.98.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.59 points or 0.04 percent, to close at 4,472.11.

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