USDA’s reports Wednesday did nothing to dispel the attitude that grain supplies in 2014-15 will be more comfortable than they have in recent years.
Crop futures fell, with wheat declining the most. The USDA report held few surprises but added to the downward pressure already there because of generally favourable weather.
July canola settled at $458.30, down $3.40 and November closed at $453.70, down $5.
Pressure came from weaker soybeans and soy oil and a stronger loonie. Palm oil fell on concern about rising stocks and weak demand.
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U.S. grains: Soybeans, corn fall on harvest pressure
U.S. corn and soybean futures were lower on Monday in choppy trade, pressured by the expanding Midwest harvest of both crops, but uncertainty about quarterly government stocks data due on Tuesday kept a floor under prices, analysts said.
There is a perception in the trade that despite the late seeding, unseeded acres and patchy frost of last week, canola growth is pretty good.
Also, Europe is expecting a larger rapeseed crop this year.
The only positive news for prices today was the Australian government crop forecast. It lowered its outlook for all crops because of the threat from the developing El Nino.
Australia forecast its canola crop at 3.47 million tonnes, down 7.7 percent from last year and down 16.2 percent from 2012-13.
The price decline in soybeans was limited by the expected tight U.S. year end stocks.
USDA pegged this crop year’s soybean ending stocks at 125 million bushels, down from 130 million in May and in line with what traders expected.
That is only about a two-week supply of soybeans and was maintained by an expectation of record U.S. soybean imports of 90 million bushels or about 2.45 million tonnes.
However, USDA sees soybean stocks climbing by the end of 2014-15 to 325 million bushels, which was about in line with traders’ expectations.
Forecasts for old- and new-crop U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged on Wednesday at 1.146 billion bushels and 1.726 billion bushels respectively.
The crop condition of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is very good.
Global corn crops are also good. USDA put world corn production in 2014-15 at 981.12 million tonnes, up two million tonnes from last month.
The report was most negative for wheat, even with cuts to U.S. winter wheat production.
USDA cut the hard red winter wheat crop to 720 million bushels, down from 746 million in May and slightly less than the average of trade expectations, although within the overall range.
However, USDA has not changed its Kansas wheat harvested acreage number, keeping it the same as last year. Observers believe that number should be reduced to account for the droughted out crops.
Even with the smaller winter wheat crop, USDA increased its estimate of 2014-15 year end U.S. wheat stocks to 574 million bu. from 540 million in May.
It also increased its forecast of global wheat production to 701.62 million tonnes, up from 4.58 million tonnes from May with increased in Russia, China and the European Union more than offsetting the slightly smaller U.S. crop.
The USDA increased its forecast for Russian wheat production by one million tonnes to 53 million. However, Russian forecasters have recently trimmed their estimates with SovEcon pegging the wheat crop at 49 million tonnes, down from 50 million in its outlook last month.
Russia’s Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimated the wheat crop at 53 million tonnes, down from 54.5 million previously,
The USDA pegged global wheat ending stocks for 2014-15 at 188.61 million tonnes, up from 187.42 million in May. At the end of the current crop year they are expected to be 186.05 million tonnes.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2014 458.30 -3.40 -0.74%
Canola Nov 2014 453.70 -5.00 -1.09%
Canola Jan 2015 459.50 -4.80 -1.03%
Canola Mar 2015 462.60 -4.70 -1.01%
Canola May 2015 464.60 -4.70 -1.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 201.00 -6.00 -2.90%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 202.00 -6.00 -2.88%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 206.00 -5.00 -2.37%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 239.00 -12.00 -4.78%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 230.00 -12.00 -4.96%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 232.00 -12.00 -4.92%
Barley Jul 2014 135.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 125.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 127.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2014 1445.5 -17 -1.16%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1382.75 -12.5 -0.90%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1261.75 -8.5 -0.67%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1220.75 -8.75 -0.71%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1227.25 -8.75 -0.71%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1232.5 -9.25 -0.74%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 482.3 -2.2 -0.45%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 455.8 -2.3 -0.50%
Soybean Meal Sep 2014 423.2 -1.5 -0.35%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 38.42 -0.52 -1.34%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 38.55 -0.52 -1.33%
Soybean Oil Sep 2014 38.61 -0.47 -1.20%
Corn Jul 2014 441 -4.5 -1.01%
Corn Sep 2014 437.5 -3.75 -0.85%
Corn Dec 2014 441.75 -3.25 -0.73%
Corn Mar 2015 452.75 -2.75 -0.60%
Corn May 2015 459.75 -2.5 -0.54%
Oats Jul 2014 346.25 -1.25 -0.36%
Oats Sep 2014 333.75 -0.75 -0.22%
Oats Dec 2014 325.75 -3.75 -1.14%
Oats Mar 2015 319 -4.75 -1.47%
Oats May 2015 316.5 -4.75 -1.48%
Wheat Jul 2014 589.25 -12 -2.00%
Wheat Sep 2014 601.5 -11.5 -1.88%
Wheat Dec 2014 626.25 -10.75 -1.69%
Wheat Mar 2015 646.5 -11.5 -1.75%
Wheat May 2015 658.5 -12.5 -1.86%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 684 -15.5 -2.22%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 691.5 -14.25 -2.02%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 702.5 -14.25 -1.99%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 711.5 -13.75 -1.90%
Spring Wheat May 2015 716.5 -12.75 -1.75%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 704.25 -21.75 -3.00%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 709 -20.5 -2.81%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 719.75 -19.5 -2.64%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 724.25 -20 -2.69%
KC HRW Wheat May 2015 722.25 -20 -2.69%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 5 cents at $104.40 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 92.02 cents US, up from 91.62 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0867 Cdn.
The TSX composite was down slightly on Wednesday, taking a breather after gaining the previous eight sessions.
The World Bank on Tuesday trimmed its global growth forecast, saying events, from the Ukraine crisis to the bitter winter in the United States and Canada, dampened economic expansion in the first half of the year.
In early, unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 12.25 points, or 0.08 percent, at 14,892.13.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 102.04 points or 0.60 percent, to end at 16,843.88.
The S&P 500 declined 6.90 points or 0.35 percent, to finish at 1,943.89.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.07 points or 0.14 percent, to close at 4,331.93.
