The weather problems in Brazil have shifted from drought in the south and east to excess rain in Mato Grosso, which has delayed the harvest.
With Brazilian soybeans slow to get to port, importers will continue to buy American soybeans and that supported soybean futures Monday, but canola closed down after an initial rally ran into technical resistance.
And a dry forecast for the U.S. southern plains sent wheat higher on Monday.
The Brazilian harvest was 30 percent complete as of Friday, analysts at AgRural said Monday, five percentage points behind the pace of last year’s harvest. Parts of Mato Grosso, the largest soy producer and earliest harvest area, got 230 millimeters of rain last week.
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The news helped canola climb for part of the morning. But it ran into technical resistance, with March peaking at $418. It closed lower with March at $411.70, down $2.90 from Friday and November closing at $449.40, down $2.40.
Weaker soy oil also weighed on canola as did a stronger loonie.
The longer term factors affecting canola also remain in effect:
• the transportation problems;
• the cheapness of canola relative to soybeans.
Several analysts made forecasts for seeded area of canola and other crops this spring. FarmLink Marketing Solutions at the Grainworld conference in Winnipeg pegged spring wheat to fall to 16.5 million acres from 19 million last year. It predicts canola will rise to 21 million acres from last year’s 19.9 million, up 5.5 percent.
Louis Dreyfus Corp, estimates Western Canada’s canola area at 21.51 million acres in 2014-15, up about 7 percent from a year ago.
Corn dipped 1.5 percent as traders took profits .
Oats hit an all time high of $4.84 ¾ per bushel because of Canada’s transportation problems.
Nearby spring wheat futures dipped 1.5 cents a bushel but December new crop rose 9 ½ cents to $6.79 ½.
Kansas winter wheat rose across the board with March up 6 ¼ cents to $6.89 per bushel and December up 9 ¼ cents at $6.93 ¼.
Dry weather is expected in the U.S. southern plains over the next 30 days, reducing the yield potential as the winter wheat crop comes out of dormancy.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 411.70 -2.90 -0.70%
Canola May 2014 422.00 -2.90 -0.68%
Canola Jul 2014 431.90 -2.80 -0.64%
Canola Nov 2014 449.40 -2.40 -0.53%
Canola Jan 2015 456.90 -2.50 -0.54%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 191.00 -2.00 -1.04%
Milling Wheat May 2014 195.00 +1.00 +0.52%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 196.00 +1.00 +0.51%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1386.5 +15.75 +1.15%
Soybeans May 2014 1375 +14.75 +1.08%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1358.25 +13.5 +1.00%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1311 +11.75 +0.90%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1222 +7.25 +0.60%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1160.25 +6.5 +0.56%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 465.9 +10.1 +2.22%
Soybean Meal May 2014 448.7 +8.5 +1.93%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 434.9 +6.6 +1.54%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 40.75 -0.2 -0.49%
Soybean Oil May 2014 41.03 -0.2 -0.49%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 41.25 -0.19 -0.46%
Corn Mar 2014 451.5 -1.5 -0.33%
Corn May 2014 457.75 -1.25 -0.27%
Corn Jul 2014 462.25 -0.5 -0.11%
Corn Sep 2014 462 +0.5 +0.11%
Corn Dec 2014 465 +0.75 +0.16%
Oats Mar 2014 483 +17.5 +3.76%
Oats May 2014 448.25 +16.5 +3.82%
Oats Jul 2014 398.5 +11.5 +2.97%
Oats Sep 2014 341.75 +4 +1.18%
Oats Dec 2014 327.25 +7 +2.19%
Wheat Mar 2014 617.75 +8 +1.31%
Wheat May 2014 617 +11.5 +1.90%
Wheat Jul 2014 621 +11.75 +1.93%
Wheat Sep 2014 629.25 +11.5 +1.86%
Wheat Dec 2014 642 +11.5 +1.82%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 662.75 -1.5 -0.23%
Spring Wheat May 2014 656.75 +6.75 +1.04%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 660.75 +8.25 +1.26%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 668.75 +9 +1.36%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 679.5 +9.5 +1.42%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 689 +6.25 +0.92%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 684 +8.5 +1.26%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 676.75 +9.75 +1.46%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 682.75 +9 +1.34%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 693.25 +9.25 +1.35%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 62 cents at $102.82 US per barrel.
Unrest and demonstrations in Libya are cutting oil production in the North African nation.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.43 cents US, up from 89.86 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1058 Cdn.
The TSX composite closed at the highest in nearly three years, supported by stronger Blackberry shares and higher crude oil values. Although sales of its phones are weak, the cell phone company’s messaging technology is being rolled out into other company systems including Microsoft Windows phones and Nokia phones. It might also be used in Ford’s next generation Sync system.
U.S. indexes closed at near record highs. Traders still think a series of weak U.S. reports on economic activity are due to severe winter weather. German business morale rose in February to its highest since July 2011.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 103.84 points or 0.64 percent, to close at 16,207.14.
The S&P 500 gained 11.36 points or 0.62 percent, to end at 1,847.61, after rising to an intraday record of 1,858.71.
The Nasdaq Composite added 29.558 points or 0.69 percent, to finish at 4,292.968.
