Canola enjoyed a strong rally of more than two percent Tuesday, shaking off some of last week’s losses.
It was an up day in general in crop markets, triggered mostly by Brazilian crop analysts trimming their expectations of that country’s soybean crop because of several weeks of hot, dry weather. Paraguay has also seen an extended dry period.
Concern also rose about excess rain in Argentina and an outbreak of caterpillars that are feeding on the crop.
That rallied soybeans, soy meal and soy oil.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
Wheat futures also rallied on short covering, end user demand, concern about the health of the U.S. winter wheat crop and expectations that transportation problems in Canada could send more business America’s way.
The rally in wheat spilled over into corn. Also, stronger than expected weekly U.S. corn export loadings supported the price.
For canola, the November contract climbed back above $400, closing at $407.90, up $9.70 or 2.44 percent.
New crop November climbed $8.80 or 2.02 percent to $445.20.
AgRural cut its Brazilian soybean forecast by 1.8 million tonnes to 87 million.
Light rain is expected in several parts of Brazil this week, easing the crop stress. The question is whether late rain will be able to restore some of the lost yield potential.
Al mentioned, it is excessively wet in some parts of Argentina, but other areas are dry and that has hurt the oilseed sunflower crop, pushing down to a 30 year low according to Oil World, Bloomberg reported.
Oil World expects South American soybean production to be seven million tonnes less than it forecast in January. It also reduced its forecast of the amount that year end global stocks will increase.
It previously had forecast an increase of 16 million tones in global stocks but now sees a gain of only 12 to 13 million tonnes.
In my Western Producer column Market Watch in the coming Feb. 20 issue I quoted Canadian Grain Commission export figures to the beginning of February for lentils that implied export movement was exceptionally poor.
I forgot that Grain Commission figure are for bulk shipments. Lentils move mostly in containers and so I drew the wrong conclusion. The situation is similar for the pea numbers I quoted in the column
The most up to date numbers for total lentil exports come from Statistics Canada’s Dec. 31 supply and disposition report.
That report shows lentil exports Aug. 1 to Dec. 31 at 763,000 tonnes, up from 552,600 tonnes at the same point in the previous crop year. That is a record large movement for that period.
In peas, total movement for Aug to the end of December was 1.4 million tonnes, up from 1.09 million in the same period the year before.
Pulse companies have complained about poor rail service in December and January.
The next opportunity to look at total pulse exports will be in Statistics Canada’s March 31 supply and disposition report.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 407.90 +9.70 +2.44%
Canola May 2014 418.20 +9.40 +2.30%
Canola Jul 2014 427.90 +9.50 +2.27%
Canola Nov 2014 445.20 +8.80 +2.02%
Canola Jan 2015 452.50 +8.90 +2.01%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 199.00 +5.00 +2.58%
Milling Wheat May 2014 197.00 +3.00 +1.55%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 197.00 +3.00 +1.55%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1361 +23.5 +1.76%
Soybeans May 2014 1347.75 +22.75 +1.72%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1330.25 +22.75 +1.74%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1277 +18.25 +1.45%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1193.5 +13.75 +1.17%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1138 +7.5 +0.66%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 456.9 +6.9 +1.53%
Soybean Meal May 2014 438.1 +5.8 +1.34%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 424.9 +4.4 +1.05%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 40.36 +1.21 +3.09%
Soybean Oil May 2014 40.66 +1.19 +3.01%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 40.94 +1.18 +2.97%
Corn Mar 2014 449.5 +4.25 +0.95%
Corn May 2014 455.5 +4.75 +1.05%
Corn Jul 2014 460 +5 +1.10%
Corn Sep 2014 460.75 +4.5 +0.99%
Corn Dec 2014 463.75 +4 +0.87%
Oats Mar 2014 428.75 +7 +1.66%
Oats May 2014 393.75 +5 +1.29%
Oats Jul 2014 350.5 +1 +0.29%
Oats Sep 2014 328.5 +0.5 +0.15%
Oats Dec 2014 308 -1 -0.32%
Wheat Mar 2014 612 +13.5 +2.26%
Wheat May 2014 607.5 +11.25 +1.89%
Wheat Jul 2014 611.25 +10.75 +1.79%
Wheat Sep 2014 619.5 +10.75 +1.77%
Wheat Dec 2014 631.5 +10.5 +1.69%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 679.25 +12.75 +1.91%
Spring Wheat May 2014 655.75 +8.75 +1.35%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 657.75 +9.75 +1.50%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 664.5 +9.75 +1.49%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 675 +8.5 +1.28%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 685.75 +11.25 +1.67%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 676 +10 +1.50%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 667.25 +10.25 +1.56%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 674 +10 +1.51%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 684.5 +10.25 +1.52%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $2.13 at $102.43 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.30 cents US, up from 91.07 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0953 Cdn.
In unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 22.71 points, or 0.16 percent, at 14,077.47.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 23.99 points or 0.15 percent, to end at 16,130.40.
The S&P 500 gained 2.13 points or 0.12 percent, to finish at 1,840.76.
The Nasdaq Composite added 28.758 points or 0.68 percent, to close at 4,272.783.
