January canola gained $3.70 on the week, battling back a little from major losses the previous two weeks.
All crop markets rose modestly Friday, mostly on traders squaring positions ahead of the holidays next week. Technical factors and bargain buying were features.
Fundamental support came from forecasts of dry, warm weather in Argentina. Soils in Argentina are not yet dry and most of Brazil is enjoying good growing conditions. However, if the trend stays dry into January in Argentina, then there could be a threat to soybeans and corn as they start flowering and podding.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
Overall, despite today’s gains there are a lot of bearish factors in the world’s crop markets:
• Large global supplies of wheat
• Adequate supplies of corn and problems exporting U.S. corn to China
• Record large soybean seeded area in South America.
Agriculture Canada today issued a new supply and demand outlook updated to include the production data from the latest Statistics Canada report.
It pegs the canola carryout at a record large three million tonnes, up from 608,000 tonnes last year and 707,000 in 2011-12.
It increased its canola export forecast 200,000 tonnes to 8.2 million tonnes.
Domestic use edged up to about 7.5 million tonnes from 7.36 million due to an increase in feed, waste and dockage. The crush was steady at 7.2 million tonnes.
Domestic crush to date has run behind last year’s pace but there was good news on the crush this week.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 151,030 tonnes in the week ending Dec. 18, up eight percent from the previous week. That represents a capacity use of 86.4 percent.
The Canadian Grain Commission today released export statistics for November.
In the August to November period, the U.S. was the No. 1 Canadian wheat importer at 706,094 tonnes. No. 2 was Mexico at 523,931. No. 3 was Indonesia at 491,700 and No. 4 Japan at 393,368.
The U.S. was top Canadian wheat importer at this point in 2012 too, but at 498,300 tonnes. In 2011 is also top buyer at 472,900 tonnes.
Canadian canola exports to China August to November are 1.082 million tonnes. At the same point in 2012 it was 976,700.
In 2011, it was 708,900.
Canadian canola exports to Japan Aug-Nov were 755,256 tonnes. Same point in 2012 – 862,900 and in 2011 – 785,300
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 443.60 +2.00 +0.45%
Canola Mar 2014 453.70 +1.60 +0.35%
Canola May 2014 462.60 +1.30 +0.28%
Canola Jul 2014 471.30 +0.80 +0.17%
Canola Nov 2014 484.60 +0.50 +0.10%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 191.00 +2.00 +1.06%
Milling Wheat May 2014 201.00 +2.00 +1.01%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 204.00 +1.00 +0.49%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 248.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 146.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1339 +12 +0.90%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1331 +12 +0.91%
Soybeans May 2014 1316 +10.5 +0.80%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1301.25 +8.25 +0.64%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1271.25 +9.5 +0.75%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1211.75 +8 +0.66%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 446.6 +4.5 +1.02%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 433.6 +5.1 +1.19%
Soybean Meal May 2014 424 +4.8 +1.15%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 39.44 +0.11 +0.28%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 39.74 +0.1 +0.25%
Soybean Oil May 2014 40.12 +0.09 +0.22%
Corn Mar 2014 433.25 +2.75 +0.64%
Corn May 2014 441.5 +3 +0.68%
Corn Jul 2014 448.5 +3 +0.67%
Corn Sep 2014 454.25 +2.75 +0.61%
Corn Dec 2014 460.75 +3 +0.66%
Oats Mar 2014 348.75 +0.5 +0.14%
Oats May 2014 328 +0.75 +0.23%
Oats Jul 2014 321.25 +1.25 +0.39%
Oats Sep 2014 313.5 +1.25 +0.40%
Oats Dec 2014 311.75 +3 +0.97%
Wheat Mar 2014 613.5 +2.75 +0.45%
Wheat May 2014 620.75 +3.25 +0.53%
Wheat Jul 2014 624.75 +3.75 +0.60%
Wheat Sep 2014 634.25 +4 +0.63%
Wheat Dec 2014 647 +3.25 +0.50%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 650.5 +4.25 +0.66%
Spring Wheat May 2014 660 +4 +0.61%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 669.75 +3.25 +0.49%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 677.5 +3.25 +0.48%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 689 +2.25 +0.33%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 657.25 +4.5 +0.69%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 657.75 +4 +0.61%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 655.75 +1.75 +0.27%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 666.75 +2.75 +0.41%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 679.75 +3.75 +0.55%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 28 cents at $99.32 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 93.63 cents US, down from 93.67 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0680 Cdn.
Canada’s main stock index rose on Friday, lifted by positive U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s announcement this week to begin winding down its bond-buying program.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 8.94 points, or 0.07 percent, at 13,401.14.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 42.06 points, or 0.26 percent, to end at 16,221.14.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 8.71 points, or 0.48 percent, to finish at 1,818.31.
The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 46.61 points, or 1.15 percent, to close at 4,104.74.
For the week, the TSX composite rose 2.1 percent. The Dow rose three percent, its best week since September, and the S&P 500 gained 2.4 percent, its best week since July. The Nasdaq advanced 2.6 percent.
