A 20 percent rise in principal field crops available to market in 2013-14 is being offset, at least in part, by lower prices for most grain and oilseed commodities.
On Dec. 20, Agriculture Canada released its last outlook for field crops for 2013. Earlier in the month, Statistics Canada delivered its findings of a bumper crop that was 27 percent above the 2012 crop. What a difference a year makes. Despite very low carry-in stocks, the big 2013 harvest will boost carry-out supplies by 21 percent to a level above the 10 year average.
Looking forward to 2014, exports and domestic milling and crushing are expected to be at above average levels, necessary to deal with the large supply.
Canada was not the only country to have healthy growing conditions and a successful harvest.
Agriculture Canada forecasts a 20 to 30 percent decline in world prices from the 2012-13 levels due to surging supplies in the international marketplace. Canada will fare slightly better with a 10 to 30 percent decline in farmgate prices, say economists, due in part to the slumping Canadian dollar.
Dry beans and mustard are two crops that seem to be holding firm in their prices.
A large pea crop has resulted in an inventory rise and lower prices. Domestic use of lentils and other pulse crops is expected to decline slightly in 2014 while exports are expected to rise slightly. Carry-out stocks of pulse crops remain low.
Canola prices are expected to decline 22 percent for the 2013-14 crop. Flax could be off 10 percent, soybeans off 15 to 20 percent, durum off 20 to 30 percent and other wheat down 15 to 30. Barley may be off by about 30 percent, corn is expected to fall 30 to 50 percent from 2012-13, and oats will dip only five to 10. Peas will fall by about 20 percent in price and lentils will be off 10 to 15 percent. Dry beans will likely rise 10 to 15 percent and rye is expected to increase up to 15 percent. Chickpeas might bring 10 to 15 percent less than in 2012-13. Canaryseed might be down five to 15 percent and sunflowers off three to six.
To download the December 20 crops forecast click the following link: Canada Principal Field Crop SD-e_Dec2013
