Saskatchewan farmers plan to seed almost a carbon copy of the 2003 crop.
A Saskatchewan Agriculture’s seeding intentions report says there will be five percent more canola and 5.5 percent less durum than last year, but little difference in the other major crops.
“There doesn’t really seem to me to be anything that stands out,” said Terry Bedard, the Saskatchewan Agriculture agrologist who compiled the report.
“Our estimates tend to be conservative in terms of our swings.”
Fred Meister, director of the Saskatchewan Canola Development Commission, said the canola number of six million acres, up from 5.7 million in 2003, is “probably fairly close.” However, that could change in a hurry if Mother Nature doesn’t co-operate.
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“I think if it stays this dry it’s going to be tough to put canola in (the ground) in west-central Saskatchewan,” said Meister, who farms near Radisson, Sask.
The spring wheat estimate raised his eyebrows. It came in at 9.75 million acres, down slightly from 2003. Meister thought more farmers would back away from wheat, given low initial payment prices.
“I thought it would probably drop off.”
He thinks canola gained ground at the expense of durum, which lost 275,000 acres.
Pulse area is forecast to remain static at a little more than three million acres, which doesn’t surprise Garth Patterson, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
“It’s sort of complicated this year because of the very strong price for oilseeds.”
That factor would tend to pull acres away from pulses, but the dry conditions might drag some land back into peas and lentils, as will the fact that both crops are in “the upper third” of historical prices.
“Probably the best guess out there would be no change right now, so it would be hard to disagree with those numbers,” Patterson said.
The estimates also reflect what he has been hearing from board members and crop traders.
“There doesn’t appear to be big pressures for changes in either direction.”
If there is any surprise in the report, it’s that summerfallow acres are expected to rise for the first time in recent memory. Saskatchewan Agriculture anticipates 6.675 million acres will be left idle, up from 6.45 million in 2003.
“Summerfallow does fly in the face of the trend,” Bedard said.
“It’s going up for a couple of reasons. One is the high input, low price situation. The second one is the moisture concern.”
If the province gets good rainfall in the next few weeks, summerfallow acreage will fall and canola acreage will likely rise, she added.
