Reducing exports | Opinions mixed on whether country can meet goal
China might have imported tens of millions of tonnes of soybeans in recent years, but no one should expect a repeat in corn, says a senior Chinese grain industry analyst.
The country is not committed to vegetable oil crop self-sufficiency but it is dedicated to producing enough staple food and feed grains to feed its 1.3 billion population.
“The increasing trend of grain output will not change,” Yang Weilu of the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre told the Cereals North America conference in Winnipeg Nov. 6. “There is great opportunity to increase production.”
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Weilu said corn imports of five million tonnes this year come on top of domestic production of 215 million tonnes. It’s double the imports of 2012-13 but about the same as 2011-12 and 1995.
Many analysts outside of China and even some within the country think it will be unable to keep up with soaring feed grain demand and will be forced to become a major corn and sorghum importer.
In September, Fan Zhenyu, deputy general manager of corn division at the state-owned COFCO Co. Ltd. told a corn conference that China’s self-sufficiency ratio for corn could hit 93 percent by 2018 and 90 percent by 2020, implying corn imports of 20 million tonnes in seven years.
Recent corn imports have come from the United States but in the last year China has been putting in place agreements to import corn from other major producers such as Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.
But Weilu said Chinese corn production is surging. The country produced 193 million tonnes in 2011-12, 206 million in 2012-13 and an estimated 215 million in 2013-14.
Weilu said those production gains should continue.
Chinese wheat imports have increased sharply since 2008, climbing to five million tonnes in 2013. However, there were bigger imports in the past, like seven million tonnes in 2004. And in 2007, China exported three million tonnes of wheat.
Weilu said Chinese corn production is steadily rising, but soybean production is gradually falling. The country produced more than 17 million tonnes of soybeans in 2004, but that had fallen to less than 13 million by this year.
China imported only 13.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2000, but by 2013 that had grown to 60 million tonnes.
Weilu said the government wants the country to be food grain self-sufficient in 10 years. Recent speculation is wrong that corn imports are part of the same trend seen first in soybeans, Weilu added.
“China’s market demand does not support large imports.”
China’s corn acreage equals U.S. corn acreage, with annual incremental gains. However, per acre production is only half the U.S. rate, so there is much room for improvement and increased production.
“China will ensure long-term grain security,” Weilu said.
Weilu spent much time explaining his view that China would not become an annual major corn importer, but cynics in the audience privately wondered during the coffee break if his insistence suggested that China is anxious about its increasing reliance on imports to meet its demand.
