Stronger than expected U.S. corn and soybean exports failed to lift crop markets on Thursday, a sign that traders are mainly focused on expectations of huge U.S. crops.
Stronger vegetable oil values early in the day initially lifted canola futures but the Winnipeg market turned down when the USDA export figures for three weeks were released.
November canola closed at $483.60 per tonne, down $1.40. The most active contract is now January and it closed at $494.40, down 90 cents.
The November contract delivery period begins Friday and the contract expires Nov. 14.
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A stronger U.S. dollar relative to a basket of major world currencies weighed on U.S. crop prices.
The market’s gaze will now shift to the Nov. 8 USDA supply and demand reports. It is expected to post U.S. soybean and corn crop estimates much higher than the September numbers.
Today the Linn Group, a Chicago brokerage and research firm, estimated the soybean crop at 3.265 billion bushels with a yield of 43.1 bu. per acre, above USDA’s last estimate of a 3.149 billion bu. crop with a yield of 41.2 bu. per acre.
• Global crop estimates are also increasing.
The International Grains Council today increased its wheat crop forecast by three million tonnes to 696 million, reflecting improved outlooks in Canada and Kazakhstan. That is six percent more than last year.
Canada’s wheat crop was revised up 2.5 million tonnes to a record 33 million in keeping with Statistics Canada’s September report on production.
IGC increased its wheat consumption estimate by three million tonnes to 690 million. Year end stocks rose two million tonnes to 182 million tonnes, up four percent from last year.
IGC increased its global corn crop estimate by five million tonnes to 948 million, well above last year’s 863 million tonnes.
Year end stocks of corn increased four million tonnes to 152 million, well above last year’s 126 million.
U.S. EXPORTS
The USDA today said three weeks of net export sales of U.S. soybeans for the current 2013-14 marketing year totaled 4.74 million tonnes, well above the high end of estimates that ranged 2.4-3.0 million tonnes.
China, the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, bought about 2.1 million tonnes or nearly half of the total.
Corn sales were 4.56 million tonnes for 2013-14, nearly twice as large as the high end of estimates that ranged 1.9-2.5 million.
Mexico accounted for about 1.69 million tonnes
The three-week total for wheat exports was about 1.31 million tonnes, below the low end of estimates that ranged 1.5-2.0 million.
Soy meal exports were about 800,000 tonnes, at the low end of expectations for 800,000 to 1.1 million tonnes.
Soy oil sales were 14,500 tonnes, below trade expectations for 40,000 to 160,000 tonnes.
• European wheat export sales are robust.
The European Union has issued export licences for 9.0 million tonnes of, soft wheat so far this season, up from 5.3 million cleared by the same point in 2012-13.
• Palm oil hit the highest level in eight months overnight on expectations that the coming monsoon season will trim production. Export data for October showed that shipments were almost steady with September, which was a strong month. This monsoon is different from the monsoon that affects India during the summer.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 483.60Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.40Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.29%
Canola Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 494.40Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.90Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.18%
Canola Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 502.40Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.00Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20%
Canola May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 508.70Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.30Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.25%
Canola Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 514.40Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.30Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.25%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 229.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 237.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unchanged
Milling Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 244.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 247.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unch
Durum Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 253.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unch
Durum Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 257.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unch
Barley Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 152.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unch
Barley Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 154.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unch
Barley May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 155.00Â Â Â Â Â Â unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1280.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.56%
Soybeans Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1266.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -10.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.80%
Soybeans Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1250.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -10.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.83%
Soybeans May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1238.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.66%
Soybeans Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1234.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.62%
Soybeans Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1222.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.71%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 403.6Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.2Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.99%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 396.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -6Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.49%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 387.1Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.02%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 41.33Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.29Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.70%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 41.63Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.27Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.64%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 41.99Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.28Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.66%
Corn Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 428.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.46%
Corn Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 439.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.57%
Corn May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 447.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.56%
Corn Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 454.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -3Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.66%
Corn Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 460.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.59%
Oats Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 330.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -3Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.90%
Oats Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 312Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.42%
Oats May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 307.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.68%
Oats Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 306.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.41%
Oats Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 308.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.24%
Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 667.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.11%
Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 679.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -7Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.02%
Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 685Â Â Â Â Â Â -7Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.01%
Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 683.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.26%
Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 692Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.22%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 730.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.24%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 741Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.24%
Spring Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 747.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.17%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 750.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 747.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -4Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.53%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 740.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.97%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 742.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -6.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.87%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 739.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.64%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 723Â Â Â Â Â Â -2Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.28%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 728.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.34%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell .39 cents at $96.38 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 95.89 cents US, up from 95.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0429 Cdn.
U.S. stock markets were mostly flat, still digesting Wednesday’s comments from the Federal Reserve. It is keeping its stimulus program for now and is less worried about the run up in borrowing costs than it was in its last statements.
Toronto stocks were down a little on some weaker than expected corporate quarterly reports.
In early tallies —
The TSX composite closed down 94.07 points or 0.70 percent at 13,361.26.
The Dow fell 66.85 points or 0.43 percent to close at 15,551.91.
The Nasdaq was down 10.91 points or 0.28 percent at 3919.71.
