Stronger than expected U.S. corn and soybean exports failed to lift crop markets on Thursday, a sign that traders are mainly focused on expectations of huge U.S. crops.
Stronger vegetable oil values early in the day initially lifted canola futures but the Winnipeg market turned down when the USDA export figures for three weeks were released.
November canola closed at $483.60 per tonne, down $1.40. The most active contract is now January and it closed at $494.40, down 90 cents.
The November contract delivery period begins Friday and the contract expires Nov. 14.
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A stronger U.S. dollar relative to a basket of major world currencies weighed on U.S. crop prices.
The market’s gaze will now shift to the Nov. 8 USDA supply and demand reports. It is expected to post U.S. soybean and corn crop estimates much higher than the September numbers.
Today the Linn Group, a Chicago brokerage and research firm, estimated the soybean crop at 3.265 billion bushels with a yield of 43.1 bu. per acre, above USDA’s last estimate of a 3.149 billion bu. crop with a yield of 41.2 bu. per acre.
• Global crop estimates are also increasing.
The International Grains Council today increased its wheat crop forecast by three million tonnes to 696 million, reflecting improved outlooks in Canada and Kazakhstan. That is six percent more than last year.
Canada’s wheat crop was revised up 2.5 million tonnes to a record 33 million in keeping with Statistics Canada’s September report on production.
IGC increased its wheat consumption estimate by three million tonnes to 690 million. Year end stocks rose two million tonnes to 182 million tonnes, up four percent from last year.
IGC increased its global corn crop estimate by five million tonnes to 948 million, well above last year’s 863 million tonnes.
Year end stocks of corn increased four million tonnes to 152 million, well above last year’s 126 million.
U.S. EXPORTS
The USDA today said three weeks of net export sales of U.S. soybeans for the current 2013-14 marketing year totaled 4.74 million tonnes, well above the high end of estimates that ranged 2.4-3.0 million tonnes.
China, the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, bought about 2.1 million tonnes or nearly half of the total.
Corn sales were 4.56 million tonnes for 2013-14, nearly twice as large as the high end of estimates that ranged 1.9-2.5 million.
Mexico accounted for about 1.69 million tonnes
The three-week total for wheat exports was about 1.31 million tonnes, below the low end of estimates that ranged 1.5-2.0 million.
Soy meal exports were about 800,000 tonnes, at the low end of expectations for 800,000 to 1.1 million tonnes.
Soy oil sales were 14,500 tonnes, below trade expectations for 40,000 to 160,000 tonnes.
• European wheat export sales are robust.
The European Union has issued export licences for 9.0 million tonnes of, soft wheat so far this season, up from 5.3 million cleared by the same point in 2012-13.
• Palm oil hit the highest level in eight months overnight on expectations that the coming monsoon season will trim production. Export data for October showed that shipments were almost steady with September, which was a strong month. This monsoon is different from the monsoon that affects India during the summer.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 483.60 -1.40 -0.29%
Canola Jan 2014 494.40 -0.90 -0.18%
Canola Mar 2014 502.40 -1.00 -0.20%
Canola May 2014 508.70 -1.30 -0.25%
Canola Jul 2014 514.40 -1.30 -0.25%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 229.00 unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 237.00 unchanged
Milling Wheat May 2014 244.00 unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1280.25 -7.25 -0.56%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1266.25 -10.25 -0.80%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1250.25 -10.5 -0.83%
Soybeans May 2014 1238.75 -8.25 -0.66%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1234.75 -7.75 -0.62%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1222.75 -8.75 -0.71%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 403.6 -8.2 -1.99%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 396.5 -6 -1.49%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 387.1 -4 -1.02%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 41.33 -0.29 -0.70%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 41.63 -0.27 -0.64%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 41.99 -0.28 -0.66%
Corn Dec 2013 428.25 -2 -0.46%
Corn Mar 2014 439.25 -2.5 -0.57%
Corn May 2014 447.5 -2.5 -0.56%
Corn Jul 2014 454.25 -3 -0.66%
Corn Sep 2014 460.75 -2.75 -0.59%
Oats Dec 2013 330.25 -3 -0.90%
Oats Mar 2014 312 -4.5 -1.42%
Oats May 2014 307.75 -5.25 -1.68%
Oats Jul 2014 306.25 -1.25 -0.41%
Oats Sep 2014 308.25 -0.75 -0.24%
Wheat Dec 2013 667.5 -7.5 -1.11%
Wheat Mar 2014 679.5 -7 -1.02%
Wheat May 2014 685 -7 -1.01%
Wheat Jul 2014 683.5 -1.75 -0.26%
Wheat Sep 2014 692 -1.5 -0.22%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 730.25 -1.75 -0.24%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 741 -1.75 -0.24%
Spring Wheat May 2014 747.75 -1.25 -0.17%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 750.25 -2 -0.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 747.25 -4 -0.53%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 740.5 -7.25 -0.97%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 742.25 -6.5 -0.87%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 739.25 -4.75 -0.64%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 723 -2 -0.28%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 728.75 -2.5 -0.34%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell .39 cents at $96.38 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 95.89 cents US, up from 95.64 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0429 Cdn.
U.S. stock markets were mostly flat, still digesting Wednesday’s comments from the Federal Reserve. It is keeping its stimulus program for now and is less worried about the run up in borrowing costs than it was in its last statements.
Toronto stocks were down a little on some weaker than expected corporate quarterly reports.
In early tallies —
The TSX composite closed down 94.07 points or 0.70 percent at 13,361.26.
The Dow fell 66.85 points or 0.43 percent to close at 15,551.91.
The Nasdaq was down 10.91 points or 0.28 percent at 3919.71.
