BEIJING (Reuters) — Top Chinese grain trader COFCO estimated on Wednesday that China’s wheat imports would amount to no more than five million tonnes in the 2013-14 marketing year, much lower than analysts’ forecasts and even data on shipments to date.
Weather damage this spring to China’s wheat crop in major production areas Henan and Shandong has pushed up analysts’ estimates for its 2013-14 imports to some 10 million tonnes, which would be the highest level in a decade.
The official think-tank, China National Grain and Oils Information Center, last month revised its predictions for China’s wheat imports to 7.5 million tonnes for the year ending May 2014.
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China has already ordered 3.7 million tonnes from the United States and 2.2 million from Australia, as well as 220,000 tonnes from France, the Center said in a report, for a total of more than 6 million tonnes.
COFCO President Yu Xubo cast doubt on the bullish forecasts and provided his own estimate of three to five million tonnes.
“I don’t think there will be such large imports. We always have a good harvest, and stocks are very full,” he said on the sidelines of a conference.
Aggressive orders by Chinese buyers have already driven up U.S. wheat prices by 4.6 percent in the July-September quarter, while EU wheat futures touched a 3-1/2-month high last week.
Chinese wheat prices reached record highs last month, driven in part by the reduced supply of high-quality grain.
