As the grain markets continue to stumble their way forward without much of the usual U.S. Department of Agriculture data, a strange stillness prevails.
Crop futures prices were little changed Wednesday, with slight losses and slight gains seen in all major crops.
Both canola and spring wheat futures closed slightly lower Wednesday, but not significantly.
Traders and analysts have hotly debated the likely impact of the dearth of USDA data, with many expecting increased volatility but some predicting a settling down.
Those expecting more volatility tend to believe the lack of official government data will make traders rely heavily upon less-grounded private industry research, which will likely differ substantially between different providers, offering chances for the market to leap and slump as the numbers suggest contrasting underlying realities.
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U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
Those expecting an evening out of volatility generally expect to see speculators avoid the grains sector and pull back, not having their usual analytical tools available. They think farm hedgers and commercial grain companies and processors are less likely to drive sudden increased volumes in trading as speculators have achieved in recent years, so market moves may be restrained.
No large weather events have hit Prairie or Midwest crop regions, so decent weather is allowing crops to be harvested and delivered, providing a slightly bearish influence.
However, good sales and exports of crops have kept hopes alive that the giant crops now being harvested can be sold and shipped to hungry mouths around the world.
Stock markets were mixed Wednesday, with investors momentarily relieved from worrying about the U.S. government shutdown and looming debt default by the beginning of earnings season.
Mixed corporate results led to mixed market moves, with many stocks moving through the day between slight gains and losses.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 482.20 -0.80 -0.17%
Canola Jan 2014 491.80 -0.90 -0.18%
Canola Mar 2014 498.90 -1.30 -0.26%
Canola May 2014 504.80 -1.50 -0.30%
Canola Jul 2014 509.60 -1.70 -0.33%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 237.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 241.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 243.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 149.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1287.75 -1 -0.08%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1284 -3.75 -0.29%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1269 -6.75 -0.53%
Soybeans May 2014 1250.5 -5.75 -0.46%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1247.5 -5 -0.40%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1236.5 -4.75 -0.38%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 425.2 -3.5 -0.82%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 411.7 -3.2 -0.77%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 407.1 -3.9 -0.95%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 40.55 +0.35 +0.87%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 40.67 +0.24 +0.59%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 40.98 +0.23 +0.56%
Corn Dec 2013 443.5 +1.75 +0.40%
Corn Mar 2014 456.25 +1.75 +0.39%
Corn May 2014 464.75 +2 +0.43%
Corn Jul 2014 472.25 +2.25 +0.48%
Corn Sep 2014 478 +2.75 +0.58%
Oats Dec 2013 318 +1.25 +0.39%
Oats Mar 2014 303.75 +0.75 +0.25%
Oats May 2014 301 +0.5 +0.17%
Oats Jul 2014 294.75 +0.25 +0.08%
Oats Sep 2014 295.25 unch 0.00%
Wheat Dec 2013 690.5 -3 -0.43%
Wheat Mar 2014 700.5 -3 -0.43%
Wheat May 2014 705 -3.5 -0.49%
Wheat Jul 2014 698.25 -2 -0.29%
Wheat Sep 2014 703 -2.25 -0.32%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 753 -0.25 -0.03%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 762 -0.25 -0.03%
Spring Wheat May 2014 766.25 unch 0.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 767.25 +0.25 +0.03%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 767.75 +0.25 +0.03%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 759 -1.5 -0.20%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 758 -1 -0.13%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 742.5 +0.5 +0.07%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 749.25 -0.75 -0.10%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.88 at $101.61 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.18 cents US, down from 96.80 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0397 Cdn.
