SAO PAULO (Reuters) — Very little rain is expected in Brazil’s top soybean-growing state, Mato Grosso, just before the official start of the planting season on Sept. 15, local meteorologists said on Friday.
More rain is expected in the No. 2 producing state, Parana, in the next 15 days, but it isn’t expected to last, they said. Lower than average rains could cause early forecasts for a record 2013-14 Brazilian soybean crop to be revised downward.
Brazilian farmers have purchased enough fertilizer and seeds to plant an area large enough to surpass last season’s record 81.5 million tonnes of soybeans, if the weather cooperates.
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Farmers in Mato Grosso are particularly anxious to get seeds in the ground early so they can begin harvesting in early January and plant a second crop of corn or even more soybean, but they aren’t likely to see much wetness this month.
“A large part of Mato Grosso will have irregular rains in September and October,” said Gustavo Berardo, a meteorologist at Sao Paulo-based Somar.
He said up to five millimeters of rain could fall over the state’s centre, where important producing areas Sorriso and Lucas do Rio Verde are located, between Sept. 18 and 20. That might be enough to spur planting but it would not be well distributed, he added.
Fabricio Silva, a meteorologist at Inmet, the National Meteorological Institute in Brasilia, which is associated with the agriculture ministry, said rainfall would likely be below average in much of No. 2 and 3 producing states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul through November.
But the longer-term outlook for the centre-west is better, he added.
“In Mato Grosso and Goias the forecast is for normal rains starting in October,” Silva said in a telephone interview.
Last year, planting in Mato Grosso started around Sept. 22 and farmers coaxed a record amount of soybean from the soil, followed by a record second corn crop.
There was no rain on the horizon in Primavera do Leste, a soy town in southeastern part of the state, despite reports that some producers had jumped the gun on planting by a few days, said Getulio Viana, head of the Agricola Alvorada planting group.
Brazil has a 90-day moratorium between harvesting and planting that is meant to help prevent rust fungus. In most parts of Mato Grosso the moratorium ends Sept. 15.
“There are, yes, some seeds in the soil, those who have irrigation, but very few cases,” said Viana, who plans to plant around 27,000 hectares of soybeans for the second straight year.
“We’ll start planting any time as of next week, as soon as there is rain,” he said.
