Reports of strong early yields and 10-day temperature outlooks that put to rest previous long term forecasts for an early frost weighed on canola futures Thursday.
It was the seventh straight day of declines in canola.
Declines were limited by a rally in soybeans. Beans were down early on forecasts for showers in the Midwest but then gained traction again after late morning updates indicated reduced rainfall amounts.
But while soybeans and soy meal rose, soy oil fell. Big rapeseed crops in Europe, Russia and Ukraine are also weighing on canola.
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The start of corn harvest in the southern U.S. kept the downward pressure on corn and wheat.
The Saskatchewan crop report out today said early harvest results show above average yields of all crops. As of Sept. 2, 63 percent of the peas, 49 percent of the lentils, 66 percent of the winter wheat, five percent of the spring wheat and eight percent of the canola have been combined. Fifty percent of the canola has been swathed.
Soybeans are the driver of the grain complex these days as the Midwest dry heat stresses the plants as they set pods.
Also, soybeans already have the tightest supply-demand outlook among major crops and if average yield falls a bushel or two short of the August USDA forecast of 42.6 bu. per acre, then U.S. endings stocks could be back down to the razor thin 125 million bushels set at the end of 2012-13.
A Reuters poll of 21 analysts this week found an average yield view of 41.095 bu. per acre.
The next USDA report comes out Sept. 12.
Watch for a Statistics Canada grain stocks report tomorrow.
Ahead of the report, the average trade estimate of Canadian all-wheat stocks among analysts surveyed by Reuters was 5.13 million tonnes, down 13.5 percent from a year earlier.
The ideal weather on the Canadian Prairies and U.S. northern plains is generating strong wheat yield prospects, which is weighing down Minneapolis wheat futures. However protein levels might be down. So far, 64 percent of the U.S. spring wheat crop is harvested.
Reuters reports crops harvest in North Dakota on average having the lowest protein in three years.
It said data from the North Dakota Wheat Commission showed protein percent averaging about the mid-13s compared to the unusually high 14.6 percent the last two years.
The weaker protein level could hurt U.S. exports of spring wheat. So far this crop year, U.S. spring wheat exports are down 11 percent while overall wheat exports are up 38 percent.
ICE milling wheat and durum did not trade today but the exchange lowered the price.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 508.80 -8.20 -1.59%
Canola Jan 2014 516.50 -6.70 -1.28%
Canola Mar 2014 522.10 -6.10 -1.15%
Canola May 2014 526.40 -5.40 -1.02%
Canola Jul 2014 528.90 -5.10 -0.96%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 245.00 -8.00 -3.16%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 251.00 -7.00 -2.71%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 256.00 -7.00 -2.66%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 269.00 -11.00 -3.93%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 275.00 -7.00 -2.48%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 281.00 -8.00 -2.77%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2013 1423 +25.25 +1.81%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1367.5 +15 +1.11%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1364.25 +13.25 +0.98%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1343.75 +11.25 +0.84%
Soybeans May 2014 1315.5 +9.75 +0.75%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1309.25 +10.5 +0.81%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 479.5 +10.9 +2.33%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 434.6 +6.6 +1.54%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 429.4 +6.7 +1.59%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 43.19 -0.37 -0.85%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 43.26 -0.37 -0.85%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 43.53 -0.4 -0.91%
Corn Sep 2013 489.5 -4.5 -0.91%
Corn Dec 2013 461 -8.5 -1.81%
Corn Mar 2014 474 -8.5 -1.76%
Corn May 2014 482.5 -8.25 -1.68%
Corn Jul 2014 488.75 -8.25 -1.66%
Oats Sep 2013 374.5 -2.5 -0.66%
Oats Dec 2013 325.5 -2.5 -0.76%
Oats Mar 2014 329.5 -1.25 -0.38%
Oats May 2014 330.25 -1.75 -0.53%
Oats Jul 2014 321.25 -1.75 -0.54%
Wheat Sep 2013 627.25 -7 -1.10%
Wheat Dec 2013 640.25 -6 -0.93%
Wheat Mar 2014 653.25 -5.75 -0.87%
Wheat May 2014 661.25 -5.5 -0.82%
Wheat Jul 2014 655.5 -5.5 -0.83%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 706 -9 -1.26%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 711.25 -10.75 -1.49%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 725 -9 -1.23%
Spring Wheat May 2014 732.75 -9 -1.21%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 738 -9.75 -1.30%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 701.25 -3.75 -0.53%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 689.25 -8.75 -1.25%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 697 -8.75 -1.24%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 701.75 -8.75 -1.23%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 693.25 -8 -1.14%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.14 at $108.37 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.24 cents US, down from 95.40 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0500 Cdn.
In early tallies —
The TSX composite index rose 87.25 or 0.68 percent to close at 12,845.06.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 6.15 points, or 0.04 percent, at 14,937.02.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 1.94 points, or 0.12 percent, at 1,655.02.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 9.74 points, or 0.27 percent, at 3,658.79.
