Canola and most crop futures fall as market fizzles

Crop futures were mostly lower with soybeans leading the parade down and canola following along.

There was little new news to account for the decline in soybeans. Tuesday’s USDA crop condition report came in as expected with the percentage of soybeans rated good-to-excellent down four percentage points and corn down one, so it might have been the case of buy the rumour, sell the fact. Some technical support levels were breached on the way down, adding momentum to the decline.

A weather model forecasted slightly more moisture in the Midwest in coming days, but that model has been consistently wrong in recent weeks.

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U.S. grains: Soybeans, corn fall on harvest pressure

U.S. corn and soybean futures were lower on Monday in choppy trade, pressured by the expanding Midwest harvest of both crops, but uncertainty about quarterly government stocks data due on Tuesday kept a floor under prices, analysts said.

Two private analytic companies issued new U.S. crop size forecasts that are smaller than the August USDA forecast. Details later on in this report.

Canola continued to be pressured by generally good harvest weather in Western Canada and reports of strong yields. Pressure also came from a stronger loonie, which rose after the Bank of Canada confirmed it would keep its interest rate level at one percent.

Forecaster Lanworth, which uses remote sensing satellite data, today estimated the U.S. corn crop at 13.33 billion bushels. With an average yield of 151.6 bu. per acre.

Research firm Allendale, which surveyed farmers, today put the corn crop at 13.676 billion bu. with average yield at 153.4 bu./ac. The survey was done Aug. 19-30.

USDA’s August report put the corn crop at 13.763 billion bu. and yield at 154.4 bu. per ac.

Lanworth forecast a soybean crop of 3.114 billion bu. at 40.47 bu./ac

Allendale forecast soybeans at 2.98 billion bu. with a yield of 39bu./ac

USDA’s August take was 3.255 billion bu. at 42.6 bu./ac.

USDA updates its forecasts on Sept. 12.

There was also talk today that China was auctioning more soybeans from government-owned stocks. Some believe that could blunt demand for U.S. beans, but Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions said in a report today that the sales are usually related to the need to dispose of old stocks that are deteriorating. He noted that the selling pace of soybeans so far this year is ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projections.

September Minneapolis and Kansas wheat were the only gainers today, lifted by immediate demand from Brazil and China.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2013 517.00 -5.20 -1.00%

Canola Jan 2014 523.20 -4.90 -0.93%

Canola Mar 2014 528.20 -4.60 -0.86%

Canola May 2014 531.80 -5.00 -0.93%

Canola Jul 2014 534.00 -5.00 -0.93%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 253.00 -1.00 -0.39%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013 258.00 -1.00 -0.39%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 263.00 -1.00 -0.38%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 280.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013 282.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 289.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 2013 1397.75 -37.75 -2.63%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1352.5 -34.25 -2.47%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1351 -34 -2.45%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1332.5 -25.75 -1.90%

Soybeans May 2014 1305.75 -22 -1.66%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1298.75 -23.25 -1.76%

Soybean Meal Sep 2013 468.6 -16.8 -3.46%

Soybean Meal Oct 2013 428 -15.5 -3.49%

Soybean Meal Dec 2013 422.7 -16.2 -3.69%

Soybean Oil Sep 2013 43.56 -0.26 -0.59%

Soybean Oil Oct 2013 43.63 -0.27 -0.62%

Soybean Oil Dec 2013 43.93 -0.26 -0.59%

Corn Sep 2013 494 -4 -0.80%

Corn Dec 2013 469.5 -5.75 -1.21%

Corn Mar 2014 482.5 -5.5 -1.13%

Corn May 2014 490.75 -5.25 -1.06%

Corn Jul 2014 497 -5.25 -1.05%

Oats Sep 2013 377 -2 -0.53%

Oats Dec 2013 328 -2 -0.61%

Oats Mar 2014 330.75 -1.25 -0.38%

Oats May 2014 332 -1.25 -0.38%

Oats Jul 2014 323 -1.25 -0.39%

Wheat Sep 2013 634.25 -2.25 -0.35%

Wheat Dec 2013 646.25 -1 -0.15%

Wheat Mar 2014 659 +0.25 +0.04%

Wheat May 2014 666.75 +0.75 +0.11%

Wheat Jul 2014 661 +0.75 +0.11%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 715 +11.25 +1.60%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 722 -3 -0.41%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 734 -1.5 -0.20%

Spring Wheat May 2014 741.75 -2 -0.27%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 747.75 -1.75 -0.23%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 705 +8.25 +1.18%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 698 -1 -0.14%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 705.75 -1 -0.14%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 710.5 -1 -0.14%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 701.25 -0.75 -0.11%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.31 at $107.23 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.40 cents US, up from 94.94 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0482 Cdn.

U.S. auto sales rose the most in almost six years in August. Chinese service-sector growth reached a five-month high in the sme month and euro zone businesses recorded their best month in August in more than two years.

In early tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 17.31 points, or 0.14 percent, at 12,757.81.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 97.84 points, or 0.66 percent, finishing at 14,931.80.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 13.34 points, or 0.81 percent, closing at 1,653.11.

The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 36.43 points, or 1.01 percent, to close at 3,649.0