LONDON, U.K. (Reuters) — The wheat harvest is making good progress in western Europe, with results so far indicating a larger-than-expected crop with quality generally satisfactory.
In France, the European Union’s top producer, the latter stages of the harvest were confirming good results in northern regions and prompting further upgrades to crop estimates.
Farm office FranceAgriMer is the latest forecaster to have raised its harvest outlook, pegging production above 36 million tonnes, compared with its initial estimate of 35.9 million in July.
It put the national yield at 3.0 tonnes per acre, above the average of the past five years at 2.94 tonnes and also above the 2.92 tonnes estimated by the farm ministry.
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“To the north of the river Seine, yields are good to very good, with averages above 80 quintals a hectare (3.24 tonnes per acre) or even 90 quintals a hectare (3.64 tonnes per acre), and peaks around 120 quintals (4.86 tonnes per acre),” FranceAgriMer said in a note released late Aug. 12.
Among private forecasters, ODA said it had raised its wheat crop estimate again to 37.2 million tonnes, with an average yield of 3.02 tonnes a acre, after already increasing its outlook last week to near 37 million tonnes from 36 million.
FranceAgriMer also confirmed expectations that overall crop quality would be satisfactory, despite some poor readings.
Most of the crop was showing protein content between 10.5 and 11.5 percent, it said, calling the levels reasonable but varied. Specific weights were generally good to excellent, while Hagberg falling numbers were decent so far, it said.
In Germany, the EU’s number two producer, the harvest was progressing rapidly with initial results positive both for volume and quality, despite earlier fears of weather damage, analysts said.
“First results from south and central Germany showed overall reasonable quality including protein levels,” one analyst said. “We may not have a peak wheat harvest in terms of protein levels, but the fears seem to be subsiding that major quality damage was suffered as the very hot summer ripened plants very quickly.”
Harvesting this week is starting more broadly in the north and east German wheat export production regions.
“The north and east experienced some of the hardest weather this summer, with long periods of dryness and very high temperatures,” the analyst said. “We will have to see in the coming days if the wheat suffered widespread protein loss because of the hot summer.”
The International Grains Council earlier this month upgraded its forecast for the German wheat crop to 24.2 million tonnes, from a previous projection of 23.8 million and up from last year’s 22.4 million.
The outlook is even improving in Britain, where the smallest wheat crop in more than a decade is expected after rains wrecked autumn plantings last year.
“We probably looking at five percent nationally (of winter wheat harvested),” said analyst Susan Twining of crop consultants ADAS.
“Early yields are looking average to slightly above average, but it could be some of the better crops that are coming up for harvest now. The poor crops are going to be later harvested.”
Traders are forecasting a UK wheat crop of about 12 million tonnes, the smallest since 2001, with area down around 20 percent following difficult planting conditions last autumn.
Analysts remain optimistic that the crop will be higher in quality, even if lower in quantity, compared with last year when a sub-par crop of 13.3 million tonnes was harvested.
The quality problems in Britain last year included very low specific weights, a measure of density, which lowered the amount of flour that could be extracted.
“Specific weights look good at the moment. Some of that will be in response to the good sunshine we had during grain fill. The sunny spell in July was the crop’s saviour,” Twining said.
