It was almost as if Monday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture reports hadn’t happened.
But some traders attributed the slight increases to soybean and canola futures today to the carry-over effects of USDA, since corn and wheat fell when the report was first released.
“The report basically told traders they can’t sit on their hands any more,” said Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“They can’t just assume the big crops will roll in to the bin.”
USDA cut soybean yields by about two bushels per acre from the July supply and demand reports, which was three bu. per acre lower than most analysts had guessed before the report was issued.
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That led soybean prices sharply higher Monday, although the surprise finding did not create a limit-up move and today’s rise was less than three cents per bu. Canola rose about three cents per bu.
Ball said canola’s performance both Monday and today was weaker than that of soybeans, even if it looked similar on the charts.
“Canola really struggled to follow the soybean markets in the last two days, with the Canadian dollar going down and bean oil kicking up, canola could have been $8 to $10 higher than it is now to be in line with the U.S. market,” said Ball.
The great shape of the prairie canola crop is likely the cause of the difference, Ball said. U.S. soybean crops are mostly in good shape, but substantial areas are poorer, and the crop needs a couple of rains to fill pods.
Canola is seen to have fewer challenges, other than frost risk.
The fall in corn, with September, December and March futures contracts falling over 16 cents per bushel, underlined the bearishness of the market towards the leading cereal grain crop. USDA also cut corn yields Monday, but that has not stopped the crop’s futures from sliding.
Spring wheat futures fell just over three cents per bu.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 495.40 +1.50 +0.30%
Canola Jan 2014 501.70 +2.20 +0.44%
Canola Mar 2014 507.90 +2.80 +0.55%
Canola May 2014 514.20 +3.10 +0.61%
Canola Jul 2014 519.70 +3.40 +0.66%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 250.00 -2.00 -0.79%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 255.00 -1.00 -0.39%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 260.00 -1.00 -0.38%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 286.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 290.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 300.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013 1359.75 -14 -1.02%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1257.75 +1.25 +0.10%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1227.75 +2.5 +0.20%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1232.5 +2.5 +0.20%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1233 +0.25 +0.02%
Soybeans May 2014 1228 -3.25 -0.26%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 426.9 +1.2 +0.28%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 401.8 -0.9 -0.22%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 376.7 +1.2 +0.32%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 42.58 +0.26 +0.61%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.62 +0.24 +0.57%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.67 +0.19 +0.45%
Corn Sep 2013 455.25 -16.75 -3.55%
Corn Dec 2013 447.25 -16.75 -3.61%
Corn Mar 2014 460.75 -16.5 -3.46%
Corn May 2014 469 -16.5 -3.40%
Corn Jul 2014 475.25 -16 -3.26%
Oats Sep 2013 360.75 -1.5 -0.41%
Oats Dec 2013 327.25 -3 -0.91%
Oats Mar 2014 332.5 -1.5 -0.45%
Oats May 2014 332.75 -1.5 -0.45%
Oats Jul 2014 337 -1.5 -0.44%
Wheat Sep 2013 628.25 -6.75 -1.06%
Wheat Dec 2013 641.5 -7.5 -1.16%
Wheat Mar 2014 655.5 -8 -1.21%
Wheat May 2014 664 -8 -1.19%
Wheat Jul 2014 662.5 -8 -1.19%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 732.5 -4.25 -0.58%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 738.25 -3.25 -0.44%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 750.25 -3.25 -0.43%
Spring Wheat May 2014 756 -4.25 -0.56%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 760 -4 -0.52%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 696.25 -4 -0.57%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 702 -4.75 -0.67%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 710.75 -4.75 -0.66%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 713.25 -4 -0.56%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 697.25 -5.25 -0.75%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 72 cents at $106.83 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.67 cents US, down from 97.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0345 Cdn.
