The U.S. winter wheat crop is smaller and in worse condition than it was this time last year.
In its second crop progress report of the season April 12, the United States Department of Agriculture said 21 percent of the crop is in poor to very poor condition, up from 14 percent in those two categories in 2003.
The crop looks good in Texas and Oklahoma, two of the top winter wheat producing states, but it quickly deteriorates in other key regions of the Great Plains and beyond, said Mark Hodges, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission.
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“As you move northward into western Kansas, eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, all the way up into Montana, it’s still extremely dry. I would say those states are looking at below average crop at this point.”
Moisture shortages and above average temperatures have hurt the crop in those four states, where 35 percent of the winter wheat is seeded.
“There’s no doubt that we’ve lost production potential,” said Hodges.
Data provided by state agriculture departments shows 61 percent of the crop in Colorado, 34 percent in Nebraska, 28 percent in Kansas and 20 percent in Montana is in poor to very poor condition.
Canadian wheat farmers will be keeping a close eye on developments south of the border, said Bruce Burnett, the Canadian Wheat Board’s director of weather and crop surveillance.
“The focus is on the U.S. not only because it’s the largest exporter, but also because this is the first new-crop export wheat that generally hits the market,” he said.
“It is sort of a harbinger of what’s to come.”
But he cautioned growers not to read too much into the early season problems. The crop is only at the jointing stage of development, where the head starts moving up in the sheath of the leaves, so there is plenty of time for a turnaround.
“The crop does have some recuperative power at this point in time,” said Burnett.
“We’re still not in the absolutely critical heading stage yet.”
Hodges agreed that there is time for the winter wheat crop to recover if drought-stricken states get timely rains, but right now it’s shaping up to be below average production.
Some rain and snow fell in western Kansas and eastern Colorado on the Easter weekend, but more is needed.
While the crop condition can improve, there is no way to recover winter wheat acreage, which is down three percent from 2003 to 43.4 million acres, surprising a lot of industry pundits.
Adding in projected spring wheat and durum acres, the total U.S. wheat crop is estimated at 59.5 million acres, down four percent from 2003. It will be the lowest seeded acreage since 1972, but only two percent below the recent five-year average of 60.7 million acres.
The biggest decline in the winter wheat category is hard red winter wheat, which fell five percent to 30.9 million acres. That is the class Canadian farmers are most interested in because it is a bread wheat.
The bulk of the winter wheat was seeded in September and October. Harvest will begin in May in Texas and conclude in July in Nebraska.
