Canola rises on U.S. Midwest hot weather forecast

Canola futures rose Tuesday, supported by rising soybeans that were propelled higher by yet another shift in the Midwest weather forecast back toward hotter, drier weather.

The forecast also lifted corn prices.

Corn and soybeans were also supported by a two percentage point decline in the good-to-excellent rating in the USDA’s weekly crop condition report issued Monday. The major U.S. crops are also behind in development.

Chicago wheat was a little lower on pressure from progress in the soft red wheat harvest but Kansas and Minneapolis wheat rose a little on demand for higher protein wheat.

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Gains in canola were limited by expectations of a large harvest.

Reuters reported its poll of 15 analysts had an average forecast of a record 15 million tonne canola crop. That would mean the Canola Council’s goal of 15 million tonnes by 2015 would be met ahead of schedule.

While there has been a rash of extreme storms with hail across the Prairies and the wet conditions of June meant that fields had to be sprayed to fight disease, temperatures have mostly not been extreme, allowing a long flowering period that helps lift yield.

Weaker palm oil futures also limited canola’s gains. Malaysian palm fell to a seven month low on weak exports and increasing production.

Analyst Oil World forecast the global soybean crop at 284.22 million tonnes, up 6.8 percent from last year. USDA’s forecast is for 285.89 million tonnes.

China is expected to import a record amount of soybeans in July, said Oil World. It forecast China would import seven million tonnes in the month, up from 5.87 million in the same month last year.

Still, China stocks of the oilseed are expected to fall to eight million tonnes by the end of the month, a four-year low, due to robust demand from crushers servicing the strong demand for oil and meal.

Old crop soybean stocks are exceptionally tight in the U.S. A ship carrying Brazilian soybeans was expected to unload at a U.S. East Coast port this week. Reuters reported that the official statement of weight of soybeans aboard is only 5,000 tonnes, but the ship is capable of carrying 80,000 tonnes.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2013 526.10 +1.30 +0.25%

Canola Jan 2014 532.10 +1.30 +0.24%

Canola Mar 2014 537.10 +1.00 +0.19%

Canola May 2014 536.10 +0.50 +0.09%

Canola Jul 2014 535.10 +0.90 +0.17%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 268.00 +2.00 +0.75%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013 272.00 +2.00 +0.74%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 279.00 +1.00 +0.36%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 302.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013 307.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 312.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 199.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2013 1475.25 +21.5 +1.48%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1335.5 +21 +1.60%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1286.25 +22.5 +1.78%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1291.25 +22.75 +1.79%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1287.75 +19.25 +1.52%

Soybeans May 2014 1281 +15.75 +1.24%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 466.8 +15.3 +3.39%

Soybean Meal Sep 2013 425 +12.6 +3.06%

Soybean Meal Oct 2013 391.4 +12.1 +3.19%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 45.71 -0.13 -0.28%

Soybean Oil Sep 2013 45.68 -0.08 -0.17%

Soybean Oil Oct 2013 45.4 -0.04 -0.09%

Corn Sep 2013 545.25 +9 +1.68%

Corn Dec 2013 510.75 +7.25 +1.44%

Corn Mar 2014 523 +7.25 +1.41%

Corn May 2014 530.75 +7.25 +1.38%

Corn Jul 2014 537 +7.25 +1.37%

Oats Sep 2013 354.25 +1 +0.28%

Oats Dec 2013 343.25 +1.5 +0.44%

Oats Mar 2014 349.25 +1 +0.29%

Oats May 2014 349.75 +1.25 +0.36%

Oats Jul 2014 359.25 +1.25 +0.35%

Wheat Sep 2013 669.5 unch 0.00%

Wheat Dec 2013 682.5 +0.25 +0.04%

Wheat Mar 2014 694.5 +0.25 +0.04%

Wheat May 2014 701.25 -0.5 -0.07%

Wheat Jul 2014 700.5 +0.25 +0.04%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 759 +3.75 +0.50%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 770.75 +3.75 +0.49%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 784 +3 +0.38%

Spring Wheat May 2014 790.25 +1 +0.13%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 795.5 +0.25 +0.03%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 703.75 +2.75 +0.39%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 720.25 +2.25 +0.31%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 732.5 +2 +0.27%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 739.5 +2 +0.27%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 737.25 +2.5 +0.34%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 32 cents at $106 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.26 cents US, up from 96.03 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0388 Cdn.

U.S. stock markets pulled back from record highs set on Monday. Weaker than expected quarterly results from Coca-Cola and caution ahead of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday were behind the weakness.

Weaker than expected quarterly results at Mosaic weakened its share price and the price of Potash Corp. shares, weighing on the TSX composite.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 11.46 points, or 0.09 percent, at 12,516.89

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 32.33 points, or 0.21 percent, to end at 15,451.93.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 6.25 points, or 0.37 percent, to finish at 1,676.25.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 8.99 points, or 0.25 percent, to close at 3,598.50.