July canola falls $18.80 on week, Nov. falls $10.50

Tight stocks of old crop canola, soybeans and corn lifted nearby futures Friday but most new crop contracts closed lower.

Wheat was under pressure from advancing U.S. winter wheat harvest, which is now general in Texas. But the forecast for large amounts of rain in Kansas this weekend will stop the combines for a few days.

July canola closed at $598.60, up $2.10 and November at $548.50, down $2.50.
For the week, July was down $18.80 while November fell  $10.50.

A scan of the Agriville.com market discussion thread shows anecdotal reports that cereals and other crops are doing well but that in places canola growth is slow.

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It was a bad week for crop futures generally with the market focus switching from late seeding in North America to a view that generally good weather is helping crops get off to a good start. The USDA report on Wednesday reinforced the view that crop production this year will help to start to rebuild stocks. Also, USDA did not tighten its old crop stocks forecast.

But analyst Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions today noted that some US exporters are having a difficult time gathering enough corn from farmers to meet export commitments out of the Gulf of Mexico, forcing basis improvements. That indicates that the market must reflect increasing old crop tightness and the need to ration supply, particularly in light of late seeding and the implication of a late harvest.

Also, a close read of the USDA numbers shows that the report was not seriously bearish. Surprises could be in store if the June 28 planted acreage report cuts corn acreage, as many analysts believe.
This week’s report pushed the U.S. wheat crop forecast up a bit, but cut the world wheat production estimate due to reductions in Black Sea wheat. The 2013-14 global ending stocks forecast is only slightly higher than the 2012-13 estimate.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association weekly said members crushed 106,622 tonnes of canola, up 19 percent from the week before. That represented a capacity use of 64 percent.

Farmers in Argentina say they will stop selling grain for the next five days to protest government taxation and regulation. The move will disrupt shipments when ports are already full with about 300 ships awaiting loading.

On the other hand, Argentina’s farmers are currently seeding their wheat crop and expectations are that area will increase to four million hectares from about 3.2 million last year.
Last year dry weather limited the wheat harvest to about nine million tonnes, but the government forecasts 16 million this year with normal weather.

ICE Futures Canada in Cdn dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2013    598.60    +2.10    +0.35%
Canola Nov 2013    548.50    -2.50    -0.45%
Canola Jan 2014    551.10    -2.10    -0.38%
Canola Mar 2014    548.50    -1.20    -0.22%
Canola May 2014    544.50    -1.20    -0.22%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013    294.00    unch    0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013    294.00    unch    0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013    294.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013    301.90    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013    294.90    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013    299.40    unch    0.00%

Barley Jul 2013    244.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Oct 2013    194.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 2013    199.00    unch    0.00%

U.S. crops in cents US per bushel, soybean meal in $US per short ton and soy oil in cents US per pound.
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2013    1516.5    +6.25    +0.41%
Soybeans Aug 2013    1434    +7.25    +0.51%
Soybeans Sep 2013    1342.5    +1    +0.07%
Soybeans Nov 2013    1298.25    -2.25    -0.17%
Soybeans Jan 2014    1303.75    -3    -0.23%
Soybeans Mar 2014    1303.75    -3.25    -0.25%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013    450.7    -1.9    -0.42%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013    423.1    -1.6    -0.38%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013    403.4    -2.2    -0.54%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013    48.48    +0.64    +1.34%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013    48.45    +0.64    +1.34%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013    48.24    +0.59    +1.24%

Corn Jul 2013    655    +11.5    +1.79%
Corn Sep 2013    571.75    +1.25    +0.22%
Corn Dec 2013    533    -2.25    -0.42%
Corn Mar 2014    544    -2.5    -0.46%
Corn May 2014    551.5    -2.5    -0.45%

Oats Jul 2013    399.5    -8.75    -2.14%
Oats Sep 2013    391.5    -0.5    -0.13%
Oats Dec 2013    386.5    +2    +0.52%
Oats Mar 2014    388.5    +1.5    +0.39%
Oats May 2014    390.75    +1.5    +0.39%

Wheat Jul 2013    680.75    -4.75    -0.69%
Wheat Sep 2013    688.75    -5    -0.72%
Wheat Dec 2013    701.5    -5.25    -0.74%
Wheat Mar 2014    714.5    -6.25    -0.87%
Wheat May 2014    725    -6    -0.82%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2013    804    -8    -0.99%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013    785.25    -9.75    -1.23%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013    792.5    -9.5    -1.18%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014    805    -10.25    -1.26%
Spring Wheat May 2014    812.25    -9.25    -1.13%

Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013    711.5    -7    -0.97%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013    715.5    -8.25    -1.14%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013    733.25    -8.25    -1.11%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014    746.5    -8    -1.06%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014    755    -8    -1.05%

Nearby crude oil in New York rose $1.16 to $97.85 per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 98.26 cents US, down from 98.33 cents on Thursday. The U.S. buck was $1.0177 Cdn.

In unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 43.50 points, or 0.35 percent, at 12,233.63.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 105.90 points, or 0.70 percent, to end at 15,070.18.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 9.64 points, or 0.59 percent, to finish at 1,626.72.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 21.81 points, or 0.63 percent, to close at 3,423.56.

For the week, the TSX fell 1.1 percent, the Dow fell 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 lost one percent and the Nasdaq slid 1.3 percent.