Seeding is really starting to get going on the Canadian Prairies finally but still canola and most crop futures rose today.
Canola prices varied below and above the previous day’s close but a strong drive just before the close caused prices to settle higher in light trade.
Old crop prices were again supported by concerns about tight stocks. Steady cash demand supported U.S. nearby futures.
New crop rose less than old crop.
Many traders were squaring up positions ahead of Friday’s USDA reports that will update 2012-13 year-end stocks and also issue the first outlooks for U.S. and global supply and demand for 2013-1 crops. The first farmer survey-based estimate of the U.S. winter wheat crop will be included.
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The strong run up today in old crop corn, up more than 2.5 percent, might lead to a fairly strong decline Friday if the USDA numbers are not surprisingly bullish.
The trade already expects USDA will trim its forecasts of U.S. 2012-13 corn and soybean ending stocks.
The average trade estimate of 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks among analysts surveyed by Reuters was 1.993 billion bushels, but estimates ranged widely from 1.387 billion to 2.427 billion.
The average trade estimate of 2013-14 U.S. soy ending stocks in the Reuters survey was 236 billion bu., with estimates ranging from 147 million to 325 million.
Watch for my Tweets about Friday morning’s USDA report @darcemcmillan.
We’ll also have coverage in the daily news section at Producer.com.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the latest data confirmed its forecast that El Nino was unlikely to cause extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the summer and into winter.
The two-week forecast on the Weather Network for the Prairies looks pretty dry so here’s hoping producers can cover a lot of acres in record time!
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 636.80Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.50Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.71%
Canola Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 606.80Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.50Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75%
Canola Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 536.80Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.07%
Canola Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 537.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.02%
Canola Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 532.60Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.02%
Milling Wheat May 2013      292.00      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013      294.00      unch      0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013      294.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2013      301.90      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013      301.90      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013      294.90      unch      0.00%
Barley May 2013      243.50      unch      0.00%
Barley Jul 2013      244.00      unch      0.00%
Barley Oct 2013      194.00      unch      0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1491.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +12.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.83%
Soybeans Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1408.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +18Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.29%
Soybeans Aug 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1340Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.79%
Soybeans Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1264.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +7.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.58%
Soybeans Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 1219Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.39%
Soybeans Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1226.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37%
Soybean Meal May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 440.1Â Â Â Â Â Â +14.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.48%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 413.2Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.6Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.37%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 387.7Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.65%
Soybean Oil May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 49.07Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.41Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.84%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 49.22Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.4Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.82%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 48.97Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.76%
Corn May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 694.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +19.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.89%
Corn Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 648.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +15.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.49%
Corn Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 566Â Â Â Â Â Â +12.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.21%
Corn Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 541.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +9.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.79%
Corn Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 551.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.61%
Oats May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 413Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.04%
Oats Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 382.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.12%
Oats Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 370.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.68%
Oats Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 360.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.35%
Oats Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 365.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.55%
Wheat May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 716.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +19.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.80%
Wheat Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 723.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +17.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.48%
Wheat Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 731.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +16.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.27%
Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 748.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +15.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.12%
Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 763.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +15.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.07%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2013      857.75      unch      0.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 825.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +9.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.13%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 821.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.30%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 828.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.31%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 840.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +13Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.57%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat May 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 792Â Â Â Â Â Â +20.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.62%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 779.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +19Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.50%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 787.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +17.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.27%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â 805Â Â Â Â Â Â +17.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.22%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 818Â Â Â Â Â Â +17.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.19%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down 23 cents at $96.39 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.73 cents US, down from 99.77 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0027 Cdn.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless aid fell last week to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years.
But stock prices, flush with a long run of up days, ran out of steam today and finished lower.
In early tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 41.15 points or 0.33 percent to 12,543.90.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 22.50 points, or 0.15 percent, to end at 15,082.62.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 6.02 points, or 0.37 percent, to close at 1,626.67.
The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.10 points, or 0.12 percent, to finish at 3,409.17.
