Canola little changed Tuesday but hope for seeding weighs on new crop

July canola edged higher but new crop drifted lower on Tuesday despite a modest rebound in U.S. crop futures.

Canola saw technical weakness and a lack of buyers.

Also, new crop was pressured by dry, windy weather that should clear snow, dry fields and warm soil to allow Prairie farmers who have not yet been able to start seeding to get going.

U.S. crop futures were supported by Monday’s seeding progress report that showed only 12 percent of the corn crop was in the ground as of May 5, the slowest start since 1984.

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There will be a rain delay Wednesday over large parts of the Midwest but then it is expected to turn drier. There is a lively debate over how much late seeding will affect yields. Experts interviewed by the Western Producer say that so far the impact is small and the major determinant is July weather. See our stories on our front page and in the markets section of the May 9 edition.

As for spring wheat in the U.S., 23 percent had been seeded by May 5, down from 82 percent last year and the five-year average of 50 percent.

The condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop deteriorated. The weekly USDA report said the amount rated poor-very poor rose to 39 percent, up from 35 percent last week. Fair was 29 percent (down from 32 percent) and good to very good fell to 32 percent from 33.

• Wheat was also supported as dry weather in Ukraine and southern Russia is getting mentioned more often in market reports. A state weather forecaster in Ukraine said that unless there is good rain in the next two weeks yield of spring wheat and spring barley could fall by as much as 30 percent. Most wheat in Ukraine is winter sown.

• On the other hand, Western Australia was forecast to get much welcome rain to help get recently sown grain out of the ground. It is drier in eastern states and no rain in forecast there.

• Oil world forecasts the European Union’s 2013 rapeseed harvest will reach 19.8 million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from its April estimates, but up 560,000 tonnes from last year’s crop.

The decline is due largely to the deteriorating British crop prospects and reduced production in France.

Last year’s EU harvest was 19.24 million tonnes.

Britain might produce 1.8-1.9 million tonnes, compared to 2.56 million last year.

The reduction might result in larger than expected imports, mainly from Ukraine and Russia.

• A new policy in Argentina that will see the government reimburse part of the wheat export tax might cause farmers there to plant a little more wheat. Wheat acres have been falling because of the export tax and farmers have instead greatly expanded the area of barley. Planting season is about to begin and moisture is generally good.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 629.30 -0.10 -0.02%

Canola Jul 2013 599.30 +0.50 +0.08%

Canola Nov 2013 536.40 -0.60 -0.11%

Canola Jan 2014 537.10 -1.30 -0.24%

Canola Mar 2014 533.40 -1.30 -0.24%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1463.5 +19 +1.32%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1382.25 +13 +0.95%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1329.5 +12.5 +0.95%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1258.5 +8.75 +0.70%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1214.5 +7.25 +0.60%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1222.25 +7.5 +0.62%

Soybean Meal May 2013 416.3 +3.2 +0.77%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 403.3 +2.1 +0.52%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 383.8 +2.4 +0.63%

Soybean Oil May 2013 49.09 +0.4 +0.82%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 49.14 +0.38 +0.78%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.96 +0.42 +0.87%

Corn May 2013 676.5 -2.25 -0.33%

Corn Jul 2013 640 +3.5 +0.55%

Corn Sep 2013 561.5 +1.75 +0.31%

Corn Dec 2013 539.25 +1 +0.19%

Corn Mar 2014 550 +1.25 +0.23%

Oats May 2013 407.75 -4.75 -1.15%

Oats Jul 2013 377.25 -1.75 -0.46%

Oats Sep 2013 366.25 unch 0.00%

Oats Dec 2013 359.75 -0.25 -0.07%

Oats Mar 2014 364.5 +2.75 +0.76%

Wheat May 2013 699.5 +6.5 +0.94%

Wheat Jul 2013 709 +6.25 +0.89%

Wheat Sep 2013 718.75 +6.25 +0.88%

Wheat Dec 2013 735.75 +7 +0.96%

Wheat Mar 2014 750.5 +7.5 +1.01%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2013 857.75 +6.75 +0.79%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 809.75 +4 +0.50%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 806.5 +2.5 +0.31%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 813.5 +2.25 +0.28%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 825 +3 +0.36%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 769.75 +1 +0.13%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 758 +1.25 +0.17%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 768.75 +1.25 +0.16%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 786.25 +1.25 +0.16%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 799.5 +2.25 +0.28%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 54 cents at $95.62 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.48 cents US, up from 99.26 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0052 Cdn.

In early tallies —

The TSX composite closed up 10.19 points or 0.08 percent at 12,464.11

The Dow Jones Industrial average hit an all-time intraday high of 15,056.67. It closed up 87.31 points, or 0.58 percent, to end at 15,056.20.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 8.46 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 1,625.95.

The Nasdaq Composite Index added 3.66 points, or 0.11 percent, to finish at 3,396.63.

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