HAMBURG, Germany (Reuters) — This year’s European Union rapeseed crop is likely to stay around the low level of 2015.
Stable harvests are expected in France and Germany but uncertainty remains about crops in Poland and Britain, experts said on Jan. 28.
The EU could harvest 22 million tonnes of rapeseed this year, compared to 22.1 million last year, said Thomas Mielke, chief executive officer of Hamburg-based oilseed analyst Oil World in preliminary estimates.
This would be much lower than the 24.3 million tonne 2014 crop and would keep EU import demand high for rapeseed, Europe’s main oilseed for vegetable oils, biodiesel and animal feed.
France and Germany would be the two largest producers this year, each harvesting around 5.2 million tonnes, Oil World estimates. France produced 5.27 million tonnes last year and Germany 5.03 million tonnes.
Poland would follow with 2.9 million tonnes, compared to three million tonnes last year, and the United Kingdom with 2.1 million tonnes, down from 2.54 million tonnes in 2015.
“A crop of this size in 2016 would mean a high EU import demand of three million to 3.5 million tonnes in the next year,” Mielke said.
EU farmers reduced winter rapeseed plantings last fall by 320,000 to 370,000 acres, Oil World estimates.
“EU farmers cut sowings because of low prices at the time of planting decisions in 2015 and concern about the impact of bans on crop protection chemicals containing neonicotinoids,” Mielke said.
The EU restricted neonicotinoids to protect bees.
A cold snap in France in early January has not damaged French rapeseed despite fears that early growth in the unusually mild winter had made them vulnerable to frosts.
“It’s generally positive,” said Fabien Lagarde of French oilseed technical institute Terres Inovia.
“We can still reach high yields.”
German rapeseed is not thought to have suffered major frost damage, but there are concerns in Poland.
“Rapeseed in Poland may have been damaged in early January as severe cold arrived suddenly and from one day to the next temperatures declined by 15 to 20 C,” said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.
“There are differing opinions about how much winterkill may have taken place; we have to wait as it warms up to learn more.”
British farmers may have cut rapeseed seeding by six to 10 percent because of low prices and insect pest trouble after the neonicotinoid restrictions, said analyst Susan Twining of crop consultants ADAS.
Rain in Britain has also made it difficult to apply herbicides for weed control, she said. Mild, wet weather could increase crop disease risks.
