The Alberta government has hired a Maryland company to predict the next serious flood event.
The public has demanded better forecasting, so Hydrologics Water Management has been contracted to analyze real time data, advanced forecasts and computer simulations to come up with possible scenarios for the South Saskatchewan River basin.
Company president Dan Sheer said there is some probability of extreme events this year, “but not extraordinarily so” because the predictions are based on statistics.
“These are statistically based forecasts. They do not include meteorology. You cannot forecast meteorology terribly effectively for three months out,” he said.
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“There is no way to guarantee you will never be flooded,” he said at the Bow River Basin Council’s annual meeting in Calgary June 11.
The company evaluates snow pack depths, which are higher than normal this year, and stream flows and predicts the likelihood of certain events based on current conditions and past events.
For example, analysts know the Calgary region typically receives most of its rainfall and snow melt between May 15 and July 15.
The work produced 27 different potential stream flows between now and three months out. Based on these models, water managers are able to make better decisions as they try to control stream flows and lessen damage.
Damage can occur when rivers are flowing at 500 cubic metres per second. Last year stream flows were more than 1,700 cubic metres per second.
