The first month of summer has come and gone, which means it is time to do our monthly weather review and look ahead.
Looking at June’s temperatures, it was an average month across the Prairies with mean temperatures ranging from -0.4 C to 0.6 C above or below average, except for Winnipeg (1.6 C) and Calgary (0.9 C), which were above average.
Looking at absolute temperatures, the warmest region was Manitoba (around 17 C) with the coldest region being Alberta (around 14.5 C).
Looking at temperatures compared to average, Saskatchewan was the cool spot with both Regina and Saskatoon coming in 0.4 C below average.
Precipitation wise, the numbers tell a story of just how dry some regions have been but also that for the first time in a few months, some locations came in slightly above average.
It was a relatively wet month in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, with all three locations reporting above average amounts.
Manitoba was once again the dry spot with Brandon and Winnipeg coming in last both in terms of absolute rainfall and difference from average.
Now on to the latest long-range forecasts or predictions.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for near average temperatures in July and below average in August with precipitation coming in above average in both July and August.
The Canadian Farmers Almanac seems to be leaning toward a hot and dry July with the last month of the summer seeing near to above average temperatures with near average precipitation.
Moving on to the weather models, NOAA’s forecast looks to be calling for slightly above average temperature across the eastern Prairies this summer with the western Prairies seeing above average to well above average temperatures. Precipitation looks to be below average all summer with the driest conditions expected to be across the southern Prairies.
The CFS model is currently calling for near to above average temperatures right across the Prairies in both July and August with the western Prairies seeing the best chance of well above average temperatures. Its precipitation forecast is for near to below average amounts across most regions with a few spotty regions seeing above average amounts.
The CanSIPS’s latest model shows Manitoba seeing near to below average temperatures in both July and August, with Saskatchewan seeing near to slightly above average temperatures and Alberta experiencing above to well above average temperatures. Its precipitation forecast is calling for below average amounts across all three Prairie provinces in July and August.
Last on our list of computer models is the ECMWF, which is predicting well above average temperatures in July and August along with below average precipitation in July with near to slightly below average amounts in August.
Finally, there’s my usual take on all of this, and I am leaning toward near to above average temperatures with most regions seeing below average precipitation.
In the next issue we will continue our look at severe summer weather, this time examining what is probably the most awe-inspiring weather event and the most fearful, tornadoes.
For more Prairie weather forecasts and insights on climate science, visit Daniel Bezte’s full archive.
Read Also
Parts of Prairies see one-third of normal rain in June
Parts of Prairies see one-third of normal rain in June
