Fall forecast | Despite record grain movements, officials expect rail service could again test farmers’ patience
This year won’t see a repeat of last year’s record harvest, but officials are warning farmers that they could once again be hampered by long waits for rail service.
However, the situation today looks much different than it did a few months ago, when dozens of ships were waiting in ports for deliveries stuck in farmers’ bins.
Canadian farmers delivered a record amount of grain in June — more than 4.6 million tonnes — as Canada’s two railways continued to meet the demands of a springtime government order.
At last count, 16 boats, about double the normal number for this time of year, were waiting in Vancouver, said Mark Hemmes, president of Quorum Corp., which monitors grain transportation for the federal government. Prince Rupert is at a near normal levels, he added.
At one time this winter 38 ships were waiting for space in Vancouver and 17 in Prince Rupert.
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Hemmes said Canadian National Railway now has less than 8,000 unfilled orders while Canadian Pacific Railway has more. However, he expects that grain companies have cancelled many of those orders.
The railways were 70,000 cars behind at one time this winter.
“It’s almost a rule that says that as you get to the end of the crop year, the sales programs start to get rethought and rejigged and as we get into August, September, October, those numbers are going to go back up,” said Hemmes.
In Western Canada, last year’s massive crop, combined with 4.9 million tonnes in carry-in stocks, created an 81 million tonne test for shippers.
The backlog has eased at many country elevators, but short-line operators and producer car loading sites remain challenged, particularly in Saskatchewan.
Norm Hall, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Sask-atchewan, said western Canadian producers could be sitting on 70 million tonnes of grain after this year’s harvest.
Production will be down in wet areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but crop reports in Alberta and western Saskatchewan are more positive.
“Ten million tonnes is a lot of grain, but we’re not that far short of where we were last year,” he said.
At an APAS meeting in Saskatoon last week, delegates said they’re looking for a clearer definition of “adequate and suitable” service from an ongoing review of the Canadian Transportation Act. Their calls fall short of demanding mandatory minimum service.
“We need to have consistent service. We don’t want service for grain that oil and potash and all of the other commodities don’t receive,” said Hall. “Everybody needs adequate service.”
Hemmes told the meeting that wintertime capacity will be an issue because CP and CN are forced to run shorter trains when temperatures dip below – 25 C. CP loses 25 percent of its capacity on these days, he added, while CN loses 43 percent.
An abundance of extremely cold days last winter added to a lengthy list of problems.
“I think reasonable is something better than what we have today, but there also has to be an expectation that you can’t expect railways or any kind of operation like that to run exactly the same in January as they do in July,” said Hemmes.
“It doesn’t work that way.”
