Funds were easing their “permabear” approach to wheat futures but have returned to a substantial short position
The latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission commitment of trader’s report says managed money funds are taking an aggressive bearish position in spring wheat. This has certainly been part of an overall bearish stance by the funds in wheat futures markets. Funds have been bearish on wheat futures for the past two years but were […] Read moreTag Archives MarketsFarm
Canadian dollar shows weakness
The Loonie has suffered less than the euro, which has dropped by nearly three per cent since the U.S. election
The U.S. greenback has been on a tear since the election, with the nearby U.S. dollar index trading just over 106 points. This represents a three per cent gain in the U.S. dollar since pre-election lows. The dollar index is a trade-weighted basket of currencies and gives an indication of the strength of the U.S. […] Read more
Disagreement continues over this year’s canola production
Provincial agriculture ministry estimates are lower than Statistics Canada’s numbers, and analysts weigh in on who’s right
WINNIPEG — The size of the 2024 canola crop has become a controversial topic in Western Canada. Most market analysts believe it’s much smaller than the 38 bushel per acre average and 19 million tonne estimate, which Statistics Canada published in September. In late October, Saskatchewan Agriculture pegged the provincial canola yield at 33 bu. […] Read more
China significantly reduces its wheat purchases
Canada is expected to easily replace the lost sales because of problems with the crop in Russia, Europe and Australia
SASKATOON — China’s grain imports plunged in September. Wheat imports were down 57 per cent year on year, while corn purchases plunged 81 per cent. Related stories: U.S. Grain/Oilseed Review: Corn moves upward, soybeans, wheat down New trade war would slash U.S. exports: report It is the second straight month of poor sales volumes for […] Read more
‘Wheat OPEC’ idea faces uphill battle
Analysts say proposed BRICS grain exchange is doomed to fail, comparing it to similar initiatives attempted in the past
SASKATOON — A BRICS grain exchange won’t work, say analysts. Russia’s proposal to create a new international grain exchange was recently approved by the BRICS group of countries at a summit in Russia. Related stories: Russia’s proposed grain exchange for BRICS countries may take years to launch BRICS grain cartel unlikely BRICS is an intergovernmental […] Read more
Wheat markets continue to ignore poor global outlook
Crops are in trouble around the world, including in the United States, Russia, Europe, Australia and Argentina
Wheat markets have sold off during the past two weeks, and one would think that crop prospects have dramatically improved since last month. Have the Southern Hemisphere harvest prospects dramatically improved? Maybe the 2025 winter wheat planting conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have turned around the situation at the last minute. Neither situation has occurred, […] Read more
New trade war would slash U.S. exports: report
Canola would be the Canadian crop most directly affected by a trade war because of its link with U.S. soybean prices
SASKATOON — Grain and oilseed prices would fall if a new trade war erupted between the United States and China, according to a new report. The American Soybean Association and National Corn Growers Association sponsored the report prepared by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services. Related stories: The groups said there has been “considerable discussion” […] Read more
Market ignores Russian attacks on grain ships
Some think the market has been quiet due to large Aussie crop and infrequency of attacks; others say prices should rise
SASKATOON — Grain markets should be reinstating a Black Sea war risk premium, say analysts. “I’m very surprised that we haven’t started to push a bigger premium into the wheat market, especially soft wheats, because of what’s happening,” said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett. Related stories: Russia has been stepping up its attacks on Ukrainian grain […] Read more
Hurricane unlikely to fuel long-term fertilizer price increase, analyst says
Glacier FarmMedia – While the price of urea fertilizer has spiked at the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida, that increase is unlikely to affect Canadian farmers much, said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett. “There has a been a spike in the market down at the Gulf, so that eventually translates to […] Read more
Is the big short in wheat coming to an end?
The lifting of the wheat short position by the funds can be seen as a positive sign for wheat prices in the coming months
If there has been one consistent factor in the wheat futures market over the past two years, it has been that managed money funds have held a net short position. The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission report indicated that funds bought back 10,102 contracts during the week ending on Oct. 1 but remain short a […] Read more
