“Cheap credit and careless equity”

How important is the bulk trade in grains and oilseeds for the world bulk shipping fleet? The somewhat deflating (to farmers) answer from Trevor Lavender of Summit Maritime Corporation is that it’s not greatly important. Bulk crops only make up a little over 10 percent of world bulk shipping. Iron ore and coal are much […] Read more

Ian White and Geoff Stone on Geo-Political Shocks

Wheat board CEO Ian White just officially opened the conference by wondering aloud about what else could roil world markets, after seeing what Middle East unrest has done recently. “We will never be able to predict the X factor,” said White about unexpected events. “What will be that event that we can’t predict?” White, echoing […] Read more

Geo-political shocks and ag at GrainWorld

Here at the breakfast session of GrainWorld the Royal Bank of Canada’s assistant chief economist, Paul Ferley, is giving the big world economic outlook, with a particular focus on the Asia-Pacific region. His bank is predicting “sustained, though gradual, growth” for the world economy. What are the big worries for RBC? 1) Global “imbalances;” From […] Read more


Forecasting prices way, way far ahead: Good luck with that

From last month to this wheat is up in the Canadian Wheat Board’s Pool Return Outlook. Here are the PRO words: “Wheat values are up between $5 and $13 per tonne from last month’s PRO, depending on class, grade and protein level. Durum is up between $1 and $5. malting barley is down$1 per tone, […] Read more

Moammar, Gerry and Stan

Sometimes democracy can seem so boring. Especially when compared to the strongmen of the non-western world. For instance, here’s an image of  a dramatic non-democratic leader in his early years: That’s impressive. That’s Moammar Gadhafi, who’s still in power and who is presently seeming just as defiant as in this image here, although he now […] Read more


Correction or reversal?

So with yesterday’s clattering thump, are we still in correction territory, or are we seeing signs of a reversal to the downside? That’s the crucial question on everyone’s mind. We’ve seen a gentle sell-off of crop futures in the last week, but yesterday’s sudden slumping has made many draw in their breath. Here’s what it […] Read more

Railways stuck in the same, sad, hamstrung situation as banks

Yesterday CN Rail president and CEO Claude Mongeau made the railroading and grain transportation business sound quite exciting. Here are some phrases he used: “This is a transformational innovation;” “I believe that the supply chain, the grain handling system, is at a crossroads that will take us to a new level in terms of creating […] Read more

No CWB vs CNR strum und drang. DRAT!!!

As a shallow and yellow journalist, here’s what I hoped to see when I went to a luncheon just now at which the Canadian Wheat Board was introducing the president and CEO of CN Rail: Ahhhhhh, such drama!!!!! Such sturm und drang!!!!! Such fun to report!!!! Alas, it was not to be. Instead, I found […] Read more


Spikes, bubbles, and life in highly non-linear times

Lots of economists don’t think history has much to teach us about contemporary markets – ever. They believe in rational markets that have every bit of knowable information already factored into them, so they think there’s little to be gained from studying market history. So I don’t call those economists when I’m writing stories about […] Read more

Wheat Fleet follies: It all depends on your weltanschauung

First, a gripping set of images from an imagined history of the Royal Canadian Wheat Fleet: Ahhh, yes, there has been much reaction to the Canadian Wheat Board’s decision to buy part of a new fleet of ships for use in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway. There has been outrage, praise, surprise, shock, […] Read more