A realistic yield goal is one developed from a field’s past performance and that uses the most current information on the factors that most influence yield.
In semiarid agriculture, water is one of the major variables in crop yields, but nutrients play an important role in improving crops’ use of water by increasing the amount of yield per unit of water used.
As a result, a field-specific yield goal is determined based on available soil moisture at seeding, precipitation probabilities for the region, crop water use and soil residual nutrient levels.
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For nitrogen, the result is a minimum fertilizer recommendation followed by in-season crop monitoring at critical growth stages based on plant density, tiller formation and spikelets per head. If yield estimates indicate a larger yield than what was originally fertilized for, additional nitrogen can be top dressed before the crop becomes too advanced.
A common approach to setting realistic yield goals is selecting a value somewhere between an above average yield and a past maximum yield obtained on a specific field, or one of similar production and management history.
Another common method is to set a target of 10 percent above the three- to five-year average of crops that haven’t suffered a severe yield loss due to drought or pests.
This requires keeping records on individual fields, but only those fields of similar production potential should be considered when making estimates. The following example for a wheat yield considers the best four of the previous five years, scaled up by 10 percent.
Yields for five successive years are as follows: 1997, 46 bushels per acre; 1998, 42 bu. per acre; 1999, 51 bu. per acre; 2000, 44 bu. per acre; and 2001, 24 bu. per acre. The highest yield ever recorded on this field was 58 bu. per acre.
The average for the five years is 41 bu. per acre, but removing the lowest yield brings the average to 46 bu. per acre. A realistic yield goal, scaled up by 10 percent, would be 46 x 110 percent, or 51 bu. per acre.
While short of the maximum yield, it does provide a way to strive for yield increases. It is important to remember that, over time, yield goals will increase as long as the average yield continues to increase.
There are a number of situations where crop advisers and farmers find they can make good estimates of crop nutrient requirements based on what was grown and what was applied in a specific field. Information such as crop yield, grain protein concentration and straw management can be used to establish the status of a nutrient such as nitrogen.
For phosphorus and potassium, the year-to-year variation in plant-available supply is minor and annual application based on a balance between soil test levels and crop requirements can avoid depletion or over-application.
Remember, however, that determining a balanced nutrient budget shouldn’t replace soil testing, which is necessary to establish a nutrient supply starting point. Often this type of input-removal assessment is carried out in the years between when comprehensive soil sampling is conducted.
