This wet, prolonged harvest will have long-lasting ramifications that go beyond downgraded crop quality and dealing with high moisture grain.
One of the obvious impacts will be reduced winter wheat acreage. Farmers can’t seed a fall crop when the spring crop hasn’t been harvested in time. Plus, land that was too wet to seed in the spring was often still too wet to seed this fall.
Field ruts will be an issue for seeding operations next spring. Combines, grain carts and trucks all sunk deeply into the soft, wet ground. Even where equipment wasn’t regularly getting stuck, the tracks in the field are in many cases going to mean less than an ideal seed bed in the spring.
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There will also be residue issues in some fields. It’s difficult to scoop up crop that’s flat to the ground. Next spring, disc type openers on seeding outfits might be able to slice through the ground-hugging residue. Hoe type machines might have plugging issues unless extra steps are taken to deal with the problem before the seeders roll.
It was a great year for weeds such as Canada thistle. The best time to control this perennial menace is in the fall before growth hasn’t been halted by frost. Many growers are likely to miss this window of opportunity and will have to put up with infestations in next year’s crop.
With no end to the fall workload, there can be a tendency to delay crop marketing as well as fertilizer purchases. Many of next year’s cropping decisions aren’t on the radar screen yet.
Last year, producers were energized and optimistic after harvesting a bumper crop with good quality and strong price prospects, That optimism was later tempered by serious grain movement issues. This year, producers in most cases will be coming out of harvest tired, frustrated and disappointed.
At $8.50 a bushel, the price of canola has dropped further than most had anticipated. Many cropping budgets were constructed around a $9.50 price assumption.
A higher than usual percentage of cereal crops will be in the lower grades with disease issues creating additional marketing headaches. It’s tough to make money on feed wheat and feed barley given current prices.
However, adversity does create opportunities. Anyone fortunate enough to have durum and lentils in the top two grades is enjoying a strong run-up in prices.
For cow-calf producers, these are amazing times. The fall calf run is about to start with prices the highest ever by a country mile. Feed grain is cheap and most analysts see no end in sight for the lucrative returns. Picking bales late into the fall won’t seem like such an arduous task.
Flooded pasture and hayland is an issue in some regions, but overall the wet fall means good forage production prospects for next spring. Grass needs early moisture for strong production.
When was the last time cattle profitability was brighter than the grain sector?
Will the difficult harvest and lower grain prices slow the increase in land prices? Will cash rental rates see some moderation? Will there be increased demand for pasture and hayland as producers look to expand their herds?
One thing is for sure. For grain producers, harvest completion won’t be as satisfying as usual. This fall has set the stage for extra work and worry through the winter and into the next growing season.
